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PITTSBURGH

STEELERSPIT

4-2  |  Road

26
FINAL
Sun, Oct 18 • 1:00 PM ET
Raymond James Stadium
View Odds Details →

TAMPA BAY

BUCCANEERSTB

1-5  |  Home

19
Key Game
Cameron Johnston
KEY GAME

Cameron Johnston

#19 | Punter
@
Riley Dixon
KEY GAME

Riley Dixon

#9 | Punter
Player
Cameron Johnston None-None
Riley Dixon None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
STEELERS
48%
📊
BUCCANEERS
52%
▲ Edge: +6.70% (TB)
STEELERS 59% Book Odds: -142
BUCCANEERS 46% Book Odds: +120
Book Implied: 58.70% / 45.50%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
41.0
Projected
Book Total
38.5
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +2.5 (Over)
Over 38.5 57%
Under 38.5 43%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.6
TAMPA BAY
Book Spread
+2.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +3.1 points (Tampa Bay)
SteelersPIT (-2.5) 0 BuccaneersTB (+2.5)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+2.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Steelers Cover

48.3%

Buccaneers Cover

51.7%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around TB -0.6 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TB)

PIT By 1-6 points

16.3%

PIT By 7-13 points

14.9%

TB By 1-6 points

16.6%

TB By 7-13 points

15.8%

AI Model Projected Score
20.2
PITTSBURGH
Book Implied: 20.50
20.8
TAMPA BAY
Book Implied: 18
Simulated Score
24
PITTSBURGH
Book Implied: 20.50
22
TAMPA BAY
Book Implied: 18
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Buccaneers Loss
52% Win Prob
D
Sim Steelers Win
59% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Buccaneers (+2.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -0.6
C
Sim Buccaneers (+2.5) Loss
Proj Spread: +2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
AI o38.5 Win
Proj Total: 41.0
C
Sim o38.5 Win
Proj Total: 46.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 18, 2026 PIT @ TB 26 - 19
Aug 16, 2025 TB @ PIT 17 - 14
Oct 16, 2022 TB @ PIT 18 - 20
Sep 24, 2018 PIT @ TB 30 - 27
Sep 28, 2014 TB @ PIT 27 - 24
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5) +40.2% more
Tampa Bay: 152.6 vs Pittsburgh: 108.8
Turnovers (L5) +27.0% more
Tampa Bay: 1.2 vs Pittsburgh: 1.0
Net Passing Yards (L5) +27.5% more
Pittsburgh: 226.6 vs Tampa Bay: 164.4
Yards Per Play (L5) +11.2% more
Pittsburgh: 5.7 vs Tampa Bay: 5.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
PIT Score 20.2 26
TB Score 20.8 19
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 18.9 / 18.6 17.0 / 22.0
Net Passing Yards 164.4 / 226.6 122.0 / 211.0
Rushing Yards 152.6 / 108.8 102.0 / 89.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.4 0.32 / 0.33
Time of Possession 0.6 / 0.5 0.45 / 0.55
Total Yards 316.9 / 335.5 224.0 / 300.0
Turnovers 1.2 / 1.0 2.0 / 1.0
Yards Per Play 5.1 / 5.7 3.1 / 3.9
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +105 / -125 → -142 / +120 ↓
84%TICKETS16%
89%MONEY11%
Spread (ATS)
Open: +1.5 / -1.5 → -2.5 / +2.5 ↓
66%TICKETS34%
64%MONEY36%
Total (O/U)
Open: 45.5 → 38.5 ↓
79%TICKETS21%
74%MONEY26%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
PIT Advantage
5-2-0 (71.4%)
Margin: 2.1 ATS +/-: +0.8
TB
2-5-0 (28.6%)
Margin: 1.6 ATS +/-: +3.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
PIT Advantage
5-2-0 (71.4%)
Margin: 2.1 ATS +/-: +0.8
TB
2-5-0 (28.6%)
Margin: 1.6 ATS +/-: +3.1
⚖️ Over/Under
PIT
4-3-0
O: 57.1% / U: 42.9% Total +/-: +0.9
TB
4-3-0
O: 57.1% / U: 42.9% Total +/-: +1.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TB
PIT
TB
PIT
ML
29% 2-5
71% 5-2
100% 7-0
43% 3-4
ATS
33% 2-4-1
43% 3-4
83% 5-1-1
14% 1-6
TTL
43% 3-4
43% 3-4
29% 2-5
57% 4-3
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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