Home / NFL Projections NFL / Titans @ Colts TEN @ IND

TENNESSEE

TITANSTEN

1-5  |  Road

26
FINAL
Sun, Oct 18 • 1:00 PM ET
Lucas Oil Stadium
View Odds Details →

INDIANAPOLIS

COLTSIND

2-4  |  Home

20
Key Game
Tommy Townsend
KEY GAME

Tommy Townsend

#3 | Punter
@
Rigoberto Sanchez
KEY GAME

Rigoberto Sanchez

#8 | Punter
Player
Tommy Townsend None-None
Rigoberto Sanchez None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
TITANS
34%
📊
COLTS
66%
▲ Edge: +5.40% (TEN)
TITANS 29% Book Odds: +248
COLTS 74% Book Odds: -287
Book Implied: 28.70% / 74.20%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
42.0
Projected
Book Total
44.0
Over / Under Line
▼ Edge: +2.0 (Under)
Over 44.0 44%
Under 44.0 56%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-9.6
INDIANAPOLIS
Book Spread
-6.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +3.1 points (Indianapolis)
TitansTEN (+6.5) 0 ColtsIND (-6.5)
Indianapolis Colts (-6.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Titans Cover

24.6%

Colts Cover

75.4%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around IND -9.6 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (IND)

TEN By 1-6 points

11.0%

TEN By 7-13 points

7.6%

IND By 1-6 points

15.5%

IND By 7-13 points

19.7%

AI Model Projected Score
16.2
TENNESSEE
Book Implied: 18.80
25.8
INDIANAPOLIS
Book Implied: 25.20
Simulated Score
21
TENNESSEE
Book Implied: 18.80
27
INDIANAPOLIS
Book Implied: 25.20
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI Colts Loss
66% Win Prob
B
Sim Colts Loss
72% Win Prob
A
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Colts (-6.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -9.6
B
Sim Titans (+6.5) Win
Proj Spread: +6.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI u44.0 Loss
Proj Total: 42.0
C
Sim o44.0 Win
Proj Total: 48.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 18, 2026 TEN @ IND 26 - 20
Oct 26, 2025 TEN @ IND 14 - 38
Sep 21, 2025 IND @ TEN 41 - 20
Dec 22, 2024 TEN @ IND 30 - 38
Oct 13, 2024 IND @ TEN 20 - 17
Key Model Drivers
Net Passing Yards (L5) +24.3% more
Indianapolis: 203.3 vs Tennessee: 163.6
Total Yards (L5) +21.5% more
Indianapolis: 296.6 vs Tennessee: 244.1
Rushing Yards (L5) +15.9% more
Indianapolis: 93.2 vs Tennessee: 80.4
First Downs (L5) +14.0% more
Indianapolis: 18.5 vs Tennessee: 16.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
TEN Score 16.2 26
IND Score 25.8 20
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 18.5 / 16.2 24.0 / 11.0
Net Passing Yards 203.3 / 163.6 234.0 / 102.0
Rushing Yards 93.2 / 80.4 165.0 / 84.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.3 / 0.3 0.47 / 0.3
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.4 0.64 / 0.36
Total Yards 296.6 / 244.1 399.0 / 186.0
Turnovers 1.3 / 1.5 3.0 / 1.0
Yards Per Play 4.6 / 4.4 5.1 / 4.1
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +164 / -198 → +248 / -287 ↑
5%TICKETS95%
3%MONEY97%
Spread (ATS)
Open: +3.5 / -3.5 → +6.5 / -6.5 ↑
23%TICKETS77%
18%MONEY82%
Total (O/U)
Open: 47.5 → 44 ↓
67%TICKETS33%
72%MONEY28%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
TEN
1-6-0 (14.3%)
Margin: -6.9 ATS +/-: -1.9
IND Advantage
2-5-0 (28.6%)
Margin: -3.7 ATS +/-: -2.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
TEN
3-4-0 (42.9%)
Margin: -6.9 ATS +/-: -1.9
IND Advantage
4-3-0 (57.1%)
Margin: -3.7 ATS +/-: -2.4
⚖️ Over/Under
TEN
3-4-0
O: 42.9% / U: 57.1% Total +/-: -2.1
IND
4-3-0
O: 57.1% / U: 42.9% Total +/-: +3.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
IND
TEN
IND
TEN
ML
71% 5-2
57% 4-3
57% 4-3
43% 3-4
ATS
14% 1-6
43% 3-4
43% 3-4
57% 4-3
TTL
43% 3-4
29% 2-5
43% 3-4
43% 3-4
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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