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CHICAGO

BEARSCHI

4-2  |  Road

31
FINAL
Sun, Oct 18 • 1:00 PM ET
Mercedes-Benz Stadium
View Odds Details →

ATLANTA

FALCONSATL

2-4  |  Home

23
Key Game
Tory Taylor
KEY GAME

Tory Taylor

#19 | Punter
@
Jake Bailey
KEY GAME

Jake Bailey

#16 | Punter
Player
Tory Taylor None-None
Jake Bailey None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
BEARS
61%
📊
FALCONS
39%
▲ Edge: +6.80% (CHI)
BEARS 54% Book Odds: -118
FALCONS 51% Book Odds: -102
Book Implied: 54.10% / 50.50%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
43.6
Projected
Book Total
51.5
Over / Under Line
▼ Edge: +7.9 (Under)
Over 51.5 28%
Under 51.5 72%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-8.0
CHICAGO
Book Spread
-1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +6.5 points (Chicago)
BearsCHI (-1.5) 0 FalconsATL (+1.5)
Chicago Bears (-1.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Bears Cover

71.6%

Falcons Cover

28.4%

-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around CHI -8.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CHI)

CHI By 1-6 points

16.1%

CHI By 7-13 points

19.5%

ATL By 1-6 points

12.2%

ATL By 7-13 points

8.8%

AI Model Projected Score
25.8
CHICAGO
Book Implied: 26.50
17.8
ATLANTA
Book Implied: 25
Simulated Score
25
CHICAGO
Book Implied: 26.50
22
ATLANTA
Book Implied: 25
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Bears Win
61% Win Prob
C
Sim Bears Win
62% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Bears (-1.5) Win
Proj Spread: -8.0
A
Sim Bears (-1.5) Win
Proj Spread: -3.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI u51.5 Loss
Proj Total: 43.6
A
Sim u51.5 Loss
Proj Total: 47.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 18, 2026 CHI @ ATL 31 - 23
Dec 31, 2023 ATL @ CHI 17 - 37
Nov 20, 2022 CHI @ ATL 24 - 27
Sep 27, 2020 CHI @ ATL 30 - 26
Sep 10, 2017 ATL @ CHI 23 - 17
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +44.5% more
Chicago: 2.5 vs Atlanta: 1.4
First Downs (L5) +12.7% more
Chicago: 22.9 vs Atlanta: 20.0
Yards Per Play (L5) +23.7% more
Atlanta: 6.1 vs Chicago: 4.9
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
CHI Score 25.8 31
ATL Score 17.8 23
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 20.0 / 22.9 13.0 / 20.0
Net Passing Yards 224.0 / 214.4 194.0 / 270.0
Rushing Yards 154.0 / 148.5 63.0 / 98.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.5 / 0.4 0.25 / 0.53
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.6 0.33 / 0.67
Total Yards 378.1 / 362.9 257.0 / 368.0
Turnovers 1.4 / 2.5 3.0 / 1.0
Yards Per Play 6.1 / 4.9 5.1 / 5.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -155 / +130 → -118 / -102 ↑
56%TICKETS44%
55%MONEY45%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -3 / +3 → -1.5 / +1.5 ↑
43%TICKETS57%
45%MONEY55%
Total (O/U)
Open: 47.5 → 51.5 ↑
66%TICKETS34%
72%MONEY28%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CHI Advantage
5-2-0 (71.4%)
Margin: 5.3 ATS +/-: +3.4
ATL
3-4-0 (42.9%)
Margin: -0.3 ATS +/-: +2.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CHI Advantage
5-2-0 (71.4%)
Margin: 5.3 ATS +/-: +3.4
ATL
3-4-0 (42.9%)
Margin: -0.3 ATS +/-: +2.0
⚖️ Over/Under
CHI
3-4-0
O: 42.9% / U: 57.1% Total +/-: -0.6
ATL
4-3-0
O: 57.1% / U: 42.9% Total +/-: +3.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ATL
CHI
ATL
CHI
ML
43% 3-4
86% 6-1
29% 2-5
86% 6-1
ATS
43% 3-4
71% 5-2
29% 2-5
86% 6-1
TTL
29% 2-5
0% 0-7
43% 3-4
14% 1-6
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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