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HOUSTON

TEXANSHOU

2-4  |  Road

34
FINAL
Sun, Oct 18 • 9:30 AM ET
Wembley Stadium
View Odds Details →

JACKSONVILLE

JAGUARSJAX

4-2  |  Home

31
Key Game
Kai Kroeger
KEY GAME

Kai Kroeger

#38 | Punter
@
Logan Cooke
KEY GAME

Logan Cooke

#9 | Punter
Player
Kai Kroeger None-None
Logan Cooke None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
TEXANS
48%
📊
JAGUARS
52%
▲ Edge: +3.30% (HOU)
TEXANS 45% Book Odds: +121
JAGUARS 57% Book Odds: -134
Book Implied: 45.20% / 57.30%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
45.0
Projected
Book Total
42.5
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +2.5 (Over)
Over 42.5 58%
Under 42.5 42%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+2.0
HOUSTON
Book Spread
+2.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.5 points (Houston)
TexansHOU (+2.5) 0 JaguarsJAX (-2.5)
Houston Texans (+2.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Texans Cover

55.7%

Jaguars Cover

44.3%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around HOU +2.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (HOU)

HOU By 1-6 points

15.7%

HOU By 7-13 points

13.8%

JAX By 1-6 points

16.9%

JAX By 7-13 points

16.8%

AI Model Projected Score
21.5
HOUSTON
Book Implied: 20
23.5
JACKSONVILLE
Book Implied: 22.50
Simulated Score
20
HOUSTON
Book Implied: 20
23
JACKSONVILLE
Book Implied: 22.50
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Jaguars Loss
52% Win Prob
D
Sim Jaguars Loss
61% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Texans (+2.5) Win
Proj Spread: +2.0
D
Sim Jaguars (-2.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
AI o42.5 Win
Proj Total: 45.0
C
Sim o42.5 Win
Proj Total: 43.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 18, 2026 HOU @ JAX 34 - 31
Nov 9, 2025 JAX @ HOU 29 - 36
Sep 21, 2025 HOU @ JAX 10 - 17
Dec 1, 2024 HOU @ JAX 23 - 20
Sep 29, 2024 JAX @ HOU 20 - 24
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5) +41.0% more
Jacksonville: 110.0 vs Houston: 78.0
Turnovers (L5) +35.0% more
Jacksonville: 0.7 vs Houston: 0.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
HOU Score 21.5 34
JAX Score 23.5 31
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 19.7 / 19.0 24.0 / 23.0
Net Passing Yards 237.4 / 252.4 306.0 / 312.0
Rushing Yards 110.0 / 78.0 106.0 / 114.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.4 0.58 / 0.45
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.51 / 0.49
Total Yards 347.4 / 330.4 412.0 / 426.0
Turnovers 0.7 / 0.3 1.0 / 1.0
Yards Per Play 5.7 / 5.5 6.1 / 7.2
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -108 / -112 → +121 / -134 ↑
23%TICKETS77%
42%MONEY58%
Spread (ATS)
Open: +1.5 / -1.5 → +2.5 / -2.5 ↑
50%TICKETS50%
52%MONEY48%
Total (O/U)
Open: 42.5 → 42.5
47%TICKETS53%
80%MONEY20%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
HOU
2-5-0 (28.6%)
Margin: -0.7 ATS +/-: -3.5
JAX Advantage
4-2-0 (66.7%)
Margin: 8.3 ATS +/-: +5.6
🎯 ATS (Spread)
HOU
2-5-0 (28.6%)
Margin: -0.7 ATS +/-: -3.5
JAX Advantage
3-3-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 8.3 ATS +/-: +5.6
⚖️ Over/Under
HOU
4-3-0
O: 57.1% / U: 42.9% Total +/-: +4.6
JAX
2-4-0
O: 33.3% / U: 66.7% Total +/-: -1.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
JAX
HOU
JAX
HOU
ML
50% 3-3
14% 1-6
50% 3-3
29% 2-5
ATS
50% 3-3
43% 3-4
33% 2-4
43% 3-4
TTL
83% 5-1
29% 2-5
67% 4-2
43% 3-4
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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