Home / LALIGA Projections LALIGA / Málaga vs Espanyol Málaga vs Espanyol

MÁLAGAMÁLAGA

0-3-4  |  Home

1
FINAL
Fri, Oct 9 • 3:00 PM ET
La Rosaleda

ESPANYOLESPANYOL

2-1-4  |  Away

1
AI Model Win Probability
MÁLAGA
35%
DRAW
31%
ESPANYOL
35%
▲ Edge: +12.30% (Espanyol)
34% Book Odds: +191
DRAW 31% Book Odds: +227
38% Book Odds: +165
Book Implied: 34.40% / 30.60% / 37.70%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
2.0
Projected
Book Total
2.5
Over / Under Line
▼ Edge: +0.5 (Under)
Over 2.5 45%
Under 2.5 55%
AI Model Goal Line Expectation
AI Goal Line Proj
0.0
ESPANYOL
Book Goal Line
--
Book Line
MálagaMálaga (0) 0 EspanyolEspanyol (0)
Model Expected Goal Line
Soccer Match Statistics

Possession

58.4% / 41.6%

Shots (On Goal)

15(7) / 9(4)

Corners

8 / 2

Cards (Y/R)

4/0 - 5/0

Spread Distribution
AI Model

Cover

50.0%

Cover

50.0%

+4.5+3+1.50-1.5-3-4.5
Distribution centered around Espanyol 0.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (Espanyol)

Málaga By 1 goal

21.1%

Málaga By 2+ goals

15.9%

Espanyol By 1 goal

21.1%

Espanyol By 2+ goals

15.9%

AI Model Projected Score
1
MÁLAGA
Book Implied: 1.20
1
ESPANYOL
Book Implied: 1.20
Simulated Score
0
MÁLAGA
Book Implied: 1.20
1
ESPANYOL
Book Implied: 1.20
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Draw Win
37% Win Prob
B
Sim Espanyol Loss
54% Win Prob
D
Goal Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Málaga (-0) Push
Proj Goals: 0.0
D
Sim Espanyol (-0) Push
Proj Goals: -1.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
AI u2.5
Proj Total: 2.0
C
Sim u2.5 Win
Proj Total: 1.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 9, 2026 Málaga vs Espanyol 1 - 1
May 13, 2018 Espanyol vs Málaga 4 - 1
Jan 8, 2018 Málaga vs Espanyol 0 - 1
Feb 4, 2017 Málaga vs Espanyol 0 - 1
Aug 26, 2016 Espanyol vs Málaga 2 - 2
Key Model Drivers
Goals Scored (L5) +200.0% more
Espanyol: 6.0 vs Málaga: 2.0
Wins (L5) +100.0% more
Espanyol: 1.0 vs Málaga: 0.0
Goals Conceded (L5) +12.5% more
Espanyol: 8.0 vs Málaga: 9.0
Draws (L5) +100.0% more
Málaga: 2.0 vs Espanyol: 1.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
Espanyol Score 1.0 1
Málaga Score 1.0 1
AI Simulated Match Splits
3-Way Result Probability
Home Win: 34.6% Draw: 30.9% Away Win: 34.6%
Málaga (Home) vs Espanyol (Away)
Goals Expectation (O/U 2.5)
Over 2.5: 32.3% Under 2.5: 67.7%
Book Line: 2.5 Goals AI Predicted TTL: 2.00
Expected Goals (xG) Share
Málaga Share: 50.0% Espanyol Share: 50.0%
AI Projected Score 1.0 - 1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
Málaga
Espanyol
Málaga
Espanyol
ML
62% 5-3
62% 5-3
38% 3-5
38% 3-5
ATS
43% 3-4-1
71% 5-2-1
43% 3-4-1
29% 2-5-1
TTL
73% 5-2
54% 3-3-1
75% 6-2
54% 3-3-1
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
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