Home / Liga MX Projections Liga MX / Tigres vs Toluca Tigres vs Toluca

TIGRESTIGRES

2-4-4  |  Home

3
FINAL
Fri, Oct 9 • 11:00 PM ET
Estadio Universitario

TOLUCATOLUCA

6-2-2  |  Away

2
AI Model Win Probability
TIGRES
35%
DRAW
31%
TOLUCA
35%
▲ Edge: +6.50% (Toluca)
32% Book Odds: +213
DRAW 28% Book Odds: +260
44% Book Odds: +130
Book Implied: 31.90% / 27.80% / 43.50%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
2.0
Projected
Book Total
2.75
Over / Under Line
▼ Edge: +0.8 (Under)
Over 2.75 46%
Under 2.75 54%
AI Model Goal Line Expectation
AI Goal Line Proj
0.0
TIGRES
Book Goal Line
+0.25
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.2 goals (Tigres)
TigresTigres (+0.2) 0 TolucaToluca (-0.2)
Model Expected Goal Line
Soccer Match Statistics

Possession

30.0% / 70.0%

Shots (On Goal)

20(13) / 17(8)

Corners

5 / 6

Cards (Y/R)

1/0 - 4/0

Spread Distribution
AI Model

Cover

50.0%

Cover

50.0%

-4.5-3-1.50+1.5+3+4.5
Distribution centered around Tigres UANL 0.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (Tigres UANL)

Tigres UANL By 1 goal

21.1%

Tigres UANL By 2+ goals

15.9%

Toluca By 1 goal

21.1%

Toluca By 2+ goals

15.9%

AI Model Projected Score
1
TIGRES
Book Implied: 1.20
1
TOLUCA
Book Implied: 1.50
Simulated Score
1
TIGRES
Book Implied: 1.20
1
TOLUCA
Book Implied: 1.50
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Draw
44% Win Prob
A
Sim Draw
29% Win Prob
C
Goal Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Tigres UANL (+0.25)
Proj Goals: 0.0
D
Sim Tigres UANL (+0.25)
Proj Goals: 0.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
AI u2.75
Proj Total: 2.0
D
Sim u2.8
Proj Total: 2.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 9, 2026 Tigres vs Toluca 3 - 2
Jan 17, 2026 Tigres vs Toluca 0 - 0
Dec 14, 2025 Toluca vs Tigres 2 - 1
Dec 11, 2025 Tigres vs Toluca 1 - 0
Jul 26, 2025 Toluca vs Tigres 3 - 4
Key Model Drivers
Goals Scored (L5) +450.0% more
Toluca: 11.0 vs Tigres: 2.0
Wins (L5) +100.0% more
Toluca: 2.0 vs Tigres: 1.0
Goals Conceded (L5) +166.7% more
Tigres: 3.0 vs Toluca: 8.0
Draws (L5) +100.0% more
Tigres: 2.0 vs Toluca: 1.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
Toluca Score 1.0 2
Tigres UANL Score 1.0 3
AI Simulated Match Splits
3-Way Result Probability
Home Win: 34.6% Draw: 30.9% Away Win: 34.6%
Tigres UANL (Home) vs Toluca (Away)
Goals Expectation (O/U 2.5)
Over 2.5: 32.3% Under 2.5: 67.7%
Book Line: 2.5 Goals AI Predicted TTL: 2.00
Expected Goals (xG) Share
Tigres UANL Share: 50.0% Toluca Share: 50.0%
AI Projected Score 1.0 - 1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
Tigres UANL
Toluca
Tigres UANL
Toluca
ML
40% 4-6
60% 6-4
10% 1-9
60% 6-4
ATS
72% 6-2-1
50% 4-4-2
29% 2-6-1
75% 6-2-2
TTL
30% 3-7
33% 3-6-1
50% 5-5
67% 6-3-1
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
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