Home / Liga MX Projections Liga MX / Puebla vs León Puebla vs León

PUEBLAPUEBLA

4-2-4  |  Home

1
FINAL
Fri, Oct 9 • 9:00 PM ET
Estadio Cuauhtémoc

LEÓNLEÓN

5-2-3  |  Away

1
AI Model Win Probability
PUEBLA
61%
DRAW
21%
LEÓN
18%
▲ Edge: +18.80% (León)
33% Book Odds: +207
DRAW 30% Book Odds: +238
41% Book Odds: +143
Book Implied: 32.60% / 29.60% / 41.20%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
3.0
Projected
Book Total
2.5
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +0.5 (Over)
Over 2.5 56%
Under 2.5 44%
AI Model Goal Line Expectation
AI Goal Line Proj
-1.0
PUEBLA
Book Goal Line
+0.25
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.2 goals (Puebla)
PueblaPuebla (+0.2) 0 LeónLeón (-0.2)
Model Expected Goal Line
Soccer Match Statistics

Possession

51.4% / 48.6%

Shots (On Goal)

18(6) / 10(3)

Corners

6 / 6

Cards (Y/R)

1/0 - 1/1

Spread Distribution
AI Model

Cover

74.8%

Cover

25.2%

-4.5-3-1.50+1.5+3+4.5
Distribution centered around Puebla -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (Puebla)

Puebla By 1 goal

26.1%

Puebla By 2+ goals

36.9%

León By 1 goal

11.1%

León By 2+ goals

4.8%

AI Model Projected Score
2
PUEBLA
Book Implied: 1.10
1
LEÓN
Book Implied: 1.40
Simulated Score
2
PUEBLA
Book Implied: 1.10
1
LEÓN
Book Implied: 1.40
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Puebla
40% Win Prob
D
Sim Puebla
61% Win Prob
C
Goal Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Puebla (+0.25)
Proj Goals: -1.0
C
Sim Puebla (+0.25)
Proj Goals: -1.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
AI o2.5
Proj Total: 3.0
C
Sim o2.5
Proj Total: 3.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 9, 2026 Puebla vs León 1 - 1
Apr 21, 2026 León vs Puebla 2 - 1
Apr 10, 2026 Puebla vs León 0 - 1
Nov 8, 2025 León vs Puebla 1 - 2
Aug 29, 2025 Puebla vs León 2 - 4
Key Model Drivers
Goals Conceded (L5) +66.7% more
Puebla: 3.0 vs León: 5.0
Goals Scored (L5) +200.0% more
León: 6.0 vs Puebla: 2.0
Wins (L5) +100.0% more
León: 2.0 vs Puebla: 1.0
Losses (L5) +100.0% more
León: 1.0 vs Puebla: 2.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
León Score 1.0 1
Puebla Score 2.0 1
AI Simulated Match Splits
3-Way Result Probability
Home Win: 60.6% Draw: 21.2% Away Win: 18.3%
Puebla (Home) vs León (Away)
Goals Expectation (O/U 2.5)
Over 2.5: 57.7% Under 2.5: 42.3%
Book Line: 2.5 Goals AI Predicted TTL: 3.00
Expected Goals (xG) Share
Puebla Share: 66.7% León Share: 33.3%
AI Projected Score 2.0 - 1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
Puebla
León
Puebla
León
ML
50% 5-5
50% 5-5
50% 5-5
30% 3-7
ATS
62% 5-3-2
57% 4-3-3
64% 4-2-3
29% 2-5-3
TTL
44% 4-5-1
37% 3-6
50% 5-5
47% 4-5
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
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