MINNESOTA
WILDMIN
2-0-1 | Road
2
BUFFALO
SABRESBUF
2-1-0 | Home
3
Goaltending
GOALTENDER
Jesper Wallstedt
#30 | Goaltender@
GOALTENDER
Colten Ellis
#92 | Goaltender| Player | W-L-OTL | GAA | SV% | SO |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jesper Wallstedt | None-None | 2.80 | 0.893 | -- |
| Colten Ellis | None-None | 1.86 | 0.900 | -- |
None-None
W-L-OTL
None-None
2.80
GAA
Ldr 1.86
0.893
Save %
Ldr 0.900
--
SO
--
AI Model Win Probability
WILD
55%
SABRES
45%
▲ Edge: +3.60% (MIN)
WILD
52%
Book Odds: -107
SABRES
51%
Book Odds: -103
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
5.5
Projected
Book Total
6.5
Over / Under Line
▼
Edge: +1.0 (Under)
Over 6.5
34%
Under 6.5
66%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+1.5
BUFFALO
Book Spread
+1.5
Book Line
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-6-4-20+2+4+6
Distribution centered around BUF +1.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (BUF)
MIN By 1 goal
19.1%
MIN By 2-3 goals
34.1%
BUF By 1 goal
9.2%
BUF By 2-3 goals
6.1%
AI Model Projected Score
Minnesota
3.5
MINNESOTA
Book Implied: 4
Buffalo
2
BUFFALO
Book Implied: 2.50
Simulated Score
Minnesota
2
MINNESOTA
Book Implied: 4
Buffalo
3
BUFFALO
Book Implied: 2.50
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Wild
Loss
55% Win Prob
D
Sim
Sabres
Win
69% Win Prob
A
Puck Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Sabres (-1.5)
Loss
Proj Goals: +1.5
D
Sim
Sabres (+1.5)
Win
Proj Goals: -1.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
👑 Top Selection
AI
u6.5
Win
Proj Total: 5.5
A
Sim
u6.5
Win
Proj Total: 5.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Oct 6, 2026
MIN @ BUF
2 - 3
Jan 17, 2026
MIN @ BUF
5 - 4
Nov 29, 2025
BUF @ MIN
3 - 2
Mar 22, 2025
BUF @ MIN
1 - 4
Nov 27, 2024
MIN @ BUF
1 - 0
Key Model Drivers
Power Play % (L5)
+38.9%
Minnesota: 38.9%
vs
Buffalo: 0.0%
Blocked Shots (L5)
+27.3% more
Minnesota: 11.0
vs
Buffalo: 8.0
Takeaways (L5)
+26.1% more
Minnesota: 4.2
vs
Buffalo: 3.1
Shots on Goal (L5)
+11.1% more
Minnesota: 30.0
vs
Buffalo: 26.7
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
MIN Score
3.5
2
BUF Score
2.0
3
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Blocked Shots
8.0 / 11.0
16.0 / 17.0
Faceoff %
47.2 / 48.9
55.6 / 44.4
Hits
24.3 / 23.1
12.0 / 26.0
Power Play %
0.0 / 38.9
0.0 / 25.0
Shots on Goal
26.7 / 30.0
28.0 / 20.0
Takeaways
3.1 / 4.2
3.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -108 / -112
→
-107 / -103
↓
Spread (ATS)
Open: +1.5 / -1.5
→
-1.5 / +1.5
↓
Total (O/U)
Open: 5.5
→
6.5
↑
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
BUF
MIN
BUF
MIN
ML
67%
2-1
67%
2-1
67%
2-1
33%
1-2
ATS
33%
1-2
33%
1-2
100%
3-0
33%
1-2
TTL
33%
1-2
100%
3-0
33%
1-2
67%
2-1
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