Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Fresno St @ San Diego St FRES @ SDSU

FRESNO STATE

FRESNO STFRES

4-3  |  Road

23
FINAL
Sat, Oct 17 • 10:30 PM ET
Snapdragon Stadium
View Odds Details →

SAN DIEGO STATE

SAN DIEGO STSDSU

3-4  |  Home

26
Key Game
Jordan Malau'ulu
KEY GAME

Jordan Malau'ulu

#10 | Wide Receiver
@
Tashi Dorje
KEY GAME

Tashi Dorje

#89 | Punter
Player
Jordan Malau'ulu None-None
Tashi Dorje None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
FRESNO ST
44%
📊
SAN DIEGO ST
56%
▲ Edge: +24.40% (SDSU)
FRESNO ST 73% Book Odds: -270
SAN DIEGO ST 31% Book Odds: +220
Book Implied: 73% / 31.20%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
51.5
Projected
Book Total
46.5
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +5.0 (Over)
Over 46.5 61%
Under 46.5 39%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.5
SAN DIEGO STATE
Book Spread
+6
Book Line
▲ Edge: +8.5 points (San Diego State)
Fresno StFRES (-6) 0 San Diego StSDSU (+6)
San Diego State Aztecs (+6) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Fresno St Cover

42.9%

San Diego St Cover

57.1%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around SDSU -2.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SDSU)

FRES By 1-6 points

15.5%

FRES By 7-13 points

13.4%

SDSU By 1-6 points

16.9%

SDSU By 7-13 points

17.2%

AI Model Projected Score
24.5
FRESNO STATE
Book Implied: 26.20
27
SAN DIEGO STATE
Book Implied: 20.20
Simulated Score
31
FRESNO STATE
Book Implied: 26.20
23
SAN DIEGO STATE
Book Implied: 20.20
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI San Diego St Win
56% Win Prob
D
Sim Fresno St Loss
79% Win Prob
A
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI San Diego St (+6) Win
Proj Spread: -2.5
A
Sim Fresno St (-6) Loss
Proj Spread: -8.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI o46.5 Win
Proj Total: 51.5
B
Sim o46.5 Win
Proj Total: 54.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 17, 2026 FRES @ SDSU 23 - 26
Oct 25, 2025 SDSU @ FRES 23 - 0
Nov 25, 2023 FRES @ SDSU 18 - 33
Oct 29, 2022 SDSU @ FRES 28 - 32
Oct 30, 2021 FRES @ SDSU 30 - 20
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +78.0% more
San Diego State: 1.2 vs Fresno State: 0.4
Total Yards (L5) +33.4% more
Fresno State: 374.4 vs San Diego State: 249.5
First Downs (L5) +31.6% more
Fresno State: 18.9 vs San Diego State: 12.9
Third Down Efficiency (L5) +21.0% more
Fresno State: 0.4 vs San Diego State: 0.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
FRES Score 24.5 23
SDSU Score 27.0 26
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 12.9 / 18.9 17.0 / 18.0
Rushing Yards 114.5 / 136.6 204.0 / 135.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.2 / 0.4 0.43 / 0.31
Time of Possession 0.4 / 0.5 0.47 / 0.53
Total Yards 249.5 / 374.4 384.0 / 276.0
Turnovers 1.2 / 0.4 1.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -332 / +259 → -270 / +220 ↑
95%TICKETS5%
29%MONEY71%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -7.5 / +7.5 → -6 / +6 ↑
57%TICKETS43%
69%MONEY31%
Total (O/U)
Open: 44 → 46.5 ↑
73%TICKETS27%
71%MONEY29%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
FRES Advantage
4-3-0 (57.1%)
Margin: 6.7 ATS +/-: +5.6
SDSU
3-5-0 (37.5%)
Margin: -9.6 ATS +/-: -9.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
FRES Advantage
5-2-0 (71.4%)
Margin: 6.7 ATS +/-: +5.6
SDSU
2-6-0 (25.0%)
Margin: -9.6 ATS +/-: -9.1
⚖️ Over/Under
FRES
4-3-0
O: 57.1% / U: 42.9% Total +/-: +1.9
SDSU
6-2-0
O: 75.0% / U: 25.0% Total +/-: +9.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SDSU
FRES
SDSU
FRES
ML
62% 5-3
71% 5-2
62% 5-3
86% 6-1
ATS
62% 5-3
43% 3-4
62% 5-3
57% 4-3
TTL
38% 3-5
57% 4-3
38% 3-5
57% 4-3
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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