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SAN JOSÉ STATE

SAN JOSÉ STSJSU

4-3  |  Road

24
FINAL
Sat, Oct 17 • 9:00 PM ET
Sun Bowl
View Odds Details →

UTEP

UTEPUTEP

1-6  |  Home

11
Key Game
Trent Carrizosa
KEY GAME

Trent Carrizosa

#49 | Punter
@
Brady Braun
KEY GAME

Brady Braun

#47 | Punter
Player
Trent Carrizosa None-None
Brady Braun None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
SAN JOSÉ ST
61%
📊
UTEP
39%
▲ Edge: +9.20% (UTEP)
SAN JOSÉ ST 73% Book Odds: -273
UTEP 30% Book Odds: +231
Book Implied: 73.20% / 30.20%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
51.0
Projected
Book Total
47.0
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +4.0 (Over)
Over 47.0 63%
Under 47.0 37%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+4.6
UTEP
Book Spread
+7
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.4 points (UTEP)
San José StSJSU (-7) 0 UTEPUTEP (+7)
UTEP Miners (+7) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

San José St Cover

37.1%

UTEP Cover

62.9%

-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around UTEP +4.6 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (UTEP)

SJSU By 1-6 points

16.9%

SJSU By 7-13 points

18.4%

UTEP By 1-6 points

14.4%

UTEP By 7-13 points

11.6%

AI Model Projected Score
27.8
SAN JOSÉ STATE
Book Implied: 27
23.2
UTEP
Book Implied: 20
Simulated Score
24
SAN JOSÉ STATE
Book Implied: 27
25
UTEP
Book Implied: 20
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI San José St Win
61% Win Prob
C
Sim UTEP Loss
53% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI UTEP (+7) Loss
Proj Spread: +4.6
C
Sim UTEP (+7) Loss
Proj Spread: -1.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI o47.0 Loss
Proj Total: 51.0
B
Sim o47.0 Loss
Proj Total: 49.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 17, 2026 SJSU @ UTEP 24 - 11
Key Model Drivers
First Downs (L5) +32.6% more
San José State: 18.4 vs UTEP: 12.4
Total Yards (L5) +28.9% more
San José State: 351.0 vs UTEP: 249.4
Third Down Efficiency (L5) +9.0% more
San José State: 0.3 vs UTEP: 0.2
Turnovers (L5) +10.1% more
UTEP: 1.8 vs San José State: 1.6
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
SJSU Score 27.8 24
UTEP Score 23.2 11
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 12.4 / 18.4 27.0 / 17.0
Rushing Yards 115.0 / 106.2 180.0 / 233.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.2 / 0.3 0.31 / 0.46
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.4 0.59 / 0.41
Total Yards 249.4 / 351.0 462.0 / 426.0
Turnovers 1.8 / 1.6 0.0 / 0.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -370 / +283 → -273 / +231 ↑
98%TICKETS2%
98%MONEY2%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -9.5 / +9.5 → -7 / +7 ↑
48%TICKETS52%
45%MONEY55%
Total (O/U)
Open: 52.5 → 47 ↓
85%TICKETS15%
84%MONEY16%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SJSU Advantage
4-4-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -2.1 ATS +/-: +0.3
UTEP
1-6-0 (14.3%)
Margin: -22.1 ATS +/-: -7.8
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SJSU Advantage
4-4-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -2.1 ATS +/-: +0.3
UTEP
1-6-0 (14.3%)
Margin: -22.1 ATS +/-: -7.8
⚖️ Over/Under
SJSU
1-7-0
O: 12.5% / U: 87.5% Total +/-: -8.3
UTEP
3-4-0
O: 42.9% / U: 57.1% Total +/-: +2.1
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
UTEP
SJSU
UTEP
SJSU
ML
100% 7-0
62% 5-3
57% 4-3
50% 4-4
ATS
0% 0-7
12% 1-7
0% 0-7
38% 3-5
TTL
71% 5-2
25% 2-6
57% 4-3
25% 2-6
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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