Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Washington St @ Oregon St WSU @ ORST

WASHINGTON STATE

WASHINGTON STWSU

1-6  |  Road

30
FINAL
Sat, Oct 17 • 6:00 PM ET
Reser Stadium
View Odds Details →

OREGON STATE

OREGON STORST

5-2  |  Home

48
Key Game
Max Dean
KEY GAME

Max Dean

#32 | Punter
@
Caleb Ojeda
KEY GAME

Caleb Ojeda

#28 | Place kicker
Player
Max Dean None-None
Caleb Ojeda None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
WASHINGTON ST
62%
📊
OREGON ST
38%
▲ Edge: +49.10% (WSU)
WASHINGTON ST 13% Book Odds: +683
OREGON ST 91% Book Odds: -1012
Book Implied: 12.80% / 91%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
50.0
Projected
Book Total
52.0
Over / Under Line
▼ Edge: +2.0 (Under)
Over 52.0 45%
Under 52.0 55%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-5.0
WASHINGTON STATE
Book Spread
+18.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +23.5 points (Washington State)
Washington StWSU (+18.5) 0 Oregon StORST (-18.5)
Washington State Cougars (+18.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Washington St Cover

64.0%

Oregon St Cover

36.0%

-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around WSU -5.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (WSU)

WSU By 1-6 points

16.9%

WSU By 7-13 points

18.5%

ORST By 1-6 points

14.2%

ORST By 7-13 points

11.3%

AI Model Projected Score
27.5
WASHINGTON STATE
Book Implied: 16.80
22.5
OREGON STATE
Book Implied: 35.20
Simulated Score
18
WASHINGTON STATE
Book Implied: 16.80
33
OREGON STATE
Book Implied: 35.20
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Washington St Loss
62% Win Prob
C
Sim Oregon St Win
93% Win Prob
A
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI Washington St (+18.5) Win
Proj Spread: -5.0
A
Sim Washington St (+18.5) Win
Proj Spread: +15.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
AI u52.0 Loss
Proj Total: 50.0
C
Sim u52.0 Loss
Proj Total: 51.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 17, 2026 WSU @ ORST 30 - 48
Nov 29, 2025 ORST @ WSU 8 - 32
Nov 1, 2025 WSU @ ORST 7 - 10
Nov 23, 2024 WSU @ ORST 38 - 41
Sep 23, 2023 ORST @ WSU 35 - 38
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +63.1% more
Washington State: 1.9 vs Oregon State: 0.7
Total Yards (L5) +94.8% more
Oregon State: 556.4 vs Washington State: 285.6
First Downs (L5) +79.8% more
Oregon State: 29.6 vs Washington State: 16.5
Rushing Yards (L5) +45.4% more
Oregon State: 164.2 vs Washington State: 112.9
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
WSU Score 27.5 30
ORST Score 22.5 48
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 29.6 / 16.5 24.0 / 25.0
Rushing Yards 164.2 / 112.9 208.0 / 168.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.6 / 0.3 0.38 / 0.41
Time of Possession 0.6 / 0.5 0.49 / 0.51
Total Yards 556.4 / 285.6 555.0 / 459.0
Turnovers 0.7 / 1.9 0.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +554 / -883 → +683 / -1012 ↑
1%TICKETS99%
8%MONEY92%
Spread (ATS)
Open: +16.5 / -16.5 → +18.5 / -18.5 ↑
28%TICKETS72%
20%MONEY80%
Total (O/U)
Open: 52.5 → 52 ↓
45%TICKETS55%
65%MONEY35%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
WSU
1-7-0 (12.5%)
Margin: -8.8 ATS +/-: -2.6
ORST Advantage
5-2-0 (71.4%)
Margin: 19.6 ATS +/-: +16.5
🎯 ATS (Spread)
WSU
5-3-0 (62.5%)
Margin: -8.8 ATS +/-: -2.6
ORST Advantage
6-1-0 (85.7%)
Margin: 19.6 ATS +/-: +16.5
⚖️ Over/Under
WSU
3-5-0
O: 37.5% / U: 62.5% Total +/-: -2.6
ORST
6-1-0
O: 85.7% / U: 14.3% Total +/-: +11.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ORST
WSU
ORST
WSU
ML
83% 5-1
62% 5-3
71% 5-2
100% 8-0
ATS
67% 4-2
50% 4-4
57% 4-3
75% 6-2
TTL
50% 3-3
38% 3-5
29% 2-5
25% 2-6
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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