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UNLV

UNLVUNLV

4-3  |  Road

31
FINAL
Sat, Oct 17 • 3:30 PM ET
Falcon Stadium
View Odds Details →

AIR FORCE

AIR FORCEAFA

5-1  |  Home

41
Key Game
Matt Choules
KEY GAME

Matt Choules

#26 | Punter
@
Will Duncan
KEY GAME

Will Duncan

#94 | Punter
Player
Matt Choules None-None
Will Duncan None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
UNLV
69%
📊
AIR FORCE
31%
▲ Edge: +14.30% (UNLV)
UNLV 55% Book Odds: -122
AIR FORCE 50% Book Odds: +102
Book Implied: 55% / 49.50%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
49.0
Projected
Book Total
49.5
Over / Under Line
▼ Edge: +0.5 (Under)
Over 49.5 49%
Under 49.5 51%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-8.6
UNLV
Book Spread
-1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +7.1 points (UNLV)
UNLVUNLV (-1.5) 0 Air ForceAFA (+1.5)
UNLV Rebels (-1.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

UNLV Cover

73.0%

Air Force Cover

27.0%

-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around UNLV -8.6 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (UNLV)

UNLV By 1-6 points

15.9%

UNLV By 7-13 points

19.6%

AFA By 1-6 points

11.7%

AFA By 7-13 points

8.3%

AI Model Projected Score
28.8
UNLV
Book Implied: 25.50
20.2
AIR FORCE
Book Implied: 24
Simulated Score
26
UNLV
Book Implied: 25.50
34
AIR FORCE
Book Implied: 24
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence 👑 Top Selection
AI UNLV Loss
69% Win Prob
A
Sim Air Force Win
79% Win Prob
A
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence 👑 Top Selection
AI UNLV (-1.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -8.6
A
Sim Air Force (+1.5) Win
Proj Spread: -8.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI u49.5 Loss
Proj Total: 49.0
D
Sim o49.5 Win
Proj Total: 60.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 17, 2026 UNLV @ AFA 31 - 41
Oct 11, 2025 AFA @ UNLV 48 - 51
Nov 18, 2023 UNLV @ AFA 31 - 27
Oct 15, 2022 AFA @ UNLV 42 - 7
Nov 26, 2021 UNLV @ AFA 14 - 48
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +42.3% more
UNLV: 1.4 vs Air Force: 0.8
Rushing Yards (L5) +84.1% more
Air Force: 323.8 vs UNLV: 175.9
First Downs (L5) +22.3% more
Air Force: 22.6 vs UNLV: 18.5
Third Down Efficiency (L5) +20.0% more
Air Force: 0.6 vs UNLV: 0.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
UNLV Score 28.8 31
AFA Score 20.2 41
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 22.6 / 18.5 25.0 / 22.0
Rushing Yards 323.8 / 175.9 430.0 / 130.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.6 / 0.4 0.44 / 0.69
Time of Possession 0.6 / 0.5 0.59 / 0.41
Total Yards 384.4 / 341.9 448.0 / 376.0
Turnovers 0.8 / 1.4 0.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -144 / +123 → -122 / +102 ↑
52%TICKETS48%
73%MONEY27%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -3 / +3 → -1.5 / +1.5 ↑
66%TICKETS34%
76%MONEY24%
Total (O/U)
Open: 47.5 → 49.5 ↑
58%TICKETS42%
65%MONEY35%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
UNLV
4-3-0 (57.1%)
Margin: 0.4 ATS +/-: -2.4
AFA Advantage
6-2-0 (75.0%)
Margin: 7.8 ATS +/-: +0.8
🎯 ATS (Spread)
UNLV
4-3-0 (57.1%)
Margin: 0.4 ATS +/-: -2.4
AFA Advantage
5-3-0 (62.5%)
Margin: 7.8 ATS +/-: +0.8
⚖️ Over/Under
UNLV
2-5-0
O: 28.6% / U: 71.4% Total +/-: -5.2
AFA
3-4-0
O: 42.9% / U: 57.1% Total +/-: +0.1
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
AFA
UNLV
AFA
UNLV
ML
29% 2-5
43% 3-4
88% 7-1
57% 4-3
ATS
43% 3-4
29% 2-5
88% 7-1
71% 5-2
TTL
29% 2-5
43% 3-4
50% 4-4
29% 2-5
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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