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NORTHERN ILLINOIS

N ILLINOISNIU

0-6  |  Road

23
FINAL
Sat, Oct 17 • 3:30 PM ET
War Memorial Stadium
View Odds Details →

WYOMING

WYOMINGWYO

4-3  |  Home

41
Key Game
Jake Ference
KEY GAME

Jake Ference

#36 | Punter
@
Bart Edmiston
KEY GAME

Bart Edmiston

#18 | Punter
Player
Jake Ference None-None
Bart Edmiston None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
N ILLINOIS
29%
📊
WYOMING
71%
N ILLINOIS 29% Book Odds: +241
WYOMING 74% Book Odds: -286
Book Implied: 29.30% / 74.10%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
48.5
Projected
Book Total
42.0
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +6.5 (Over)
Over 42.0 65%
Under 42.0 35%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-9.5
WYOMING
Book Spread
-7
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.5 points (Wyoming)
N IllinoisNIU (+7) 0 WyomingWYO (-7)
Wyoming Cowboys (-7) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

N Illinois Cover

24.9%

Wyoming Cover

75.1%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around WYO -9.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (WYO)

NIU By 1-6 points

11.1%

NIU By 7-13 points

7.6%

WYO By 1-6 points

15.5%

WYO By 7-13 points

19.7%

AI Model Projected Score
19.5
NORTHERN ILLINOIS
Book Implied: 17.50
29
WYOMING
Book Implied: 24.50
Simulated Score
19
NORTHERN ILLINOIS
Book Implied: 17.50
23
WYOMING
Book Implied: 24.50
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI Wyoming Win
71% Win Prob
A
Sim Wyoming Win
65% Win Prob
B
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Wyoming (-7) Win
Proj Spread: -9.5
D
Sim N Illinois (+7) Loss
Proj Spread: +4.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI o42.0 Win
Proj Total: 48.5
B
Sim u42.0 Loss
Proj Total: 42.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 17, 2026 NIU @ WYO 23 - 41
Sep 11, 2021 WYO @ NIU 50 - 43
Sep 3, 2016 NIU @ WYO 34 - 40
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5) +43.6% more
Wyoming: 169.1 vs Northern Illinois: 117.8
Turnovers (L5) +24.2% more
Wyoming: 1.5 vs Northern Illinois: 1.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
NIU Score 19.5 23
WYO Score 29.0 41
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 17.0 / 17.4 25.0 / 21.0
Rushing Yards 169.1 / 117.8 314.0 / 176.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.3 / 0.3 0.56 / 0.29
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.5 / 0.5
Total Yards 296.4 / 310.4 510.0 / 392.0
Turnovers 1.5 / 1.2 0.0 / 0.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +220 / -274 → +241 / -286 ↑
3%TICKETS97%
67%MONEY33%
Spread (ATS)
Open: +7 / -7 → +7 / -7
35%TICKETS65%
51%MONEY49%
Total (O/U)
Open: 39 → 42 ↑
85%TICKETS15%
87%MONEY13%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
NIU
0-7-0 (0.0%)
Margin: -23.4 ATS +/-: -9.9
WYO Advantage
5-3-0 (62.5%)
Margin: -0.5 ATS +/-: -0.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
NIU
1-6-0 (14.3%)
Margin: -23.4 ATS +/-: -9.9
WYO Advantage
4-4-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -0.5 ATS +/-: -0.3
⚖️ Over/Under
NIU
4-3-0
O: 57.1% / U: 42.9% Total +/-: +5.2
WYO
2-6-0
O: 25.0% / U: 75.0% Total +/-: -4.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
WYO
NIU
WYO
NIU
ML
62% 5-3
86% 6-1
75% 6-2
86% 6-1
ATS
38% 3-5
57% 4-3
62% 5-3
43% 3-4
TTL
12% 1-7
57% 4-3
12% 1-7
29% 2-5
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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