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THE CITADEL

THE CITADELCIT

2-5  |  Road

0
FINAL
Sat, Oct 17 • 1:00 PM ET
Kyle Field
View Odds Details →

TEXAS A&M

TEXAS A&MTA&M

4-3  |  Home

41
Key Game
Jack Weil
KEY GAME

Jack Weil

#1 | Place kicker
@
David Olano
KEY GAME

David Olano

#24 | Place kicker
Player
Jack Weil None-None
David Olano None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
THE CITADEL
3%
📊
TEXAS A&M
97%
THE CITADEL --
TEXAS A&M --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
72.0
Projected
Book Total
56.5
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +15.5 (Over)
Over 56.5 83%
Under 56.5 17%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+37.0
THE CITADEL
Book Spread
+45.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +8.5 points (The Citadel)
The CitadelCIT (+45.5) 0 Texas A&MTA&M (-45.5)
The Citadel Bulldogs (+45.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

The Citadel Cover

99.6%

Texas A&M Cover

0.4%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around CIT +37.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CIT)

CIT By 1-6 points

0.3%

CIT By 7-13 points

0.1%

TA&M By 1-6 points

1.0%

TA&M By 7-13 points

3.2%

AI Model Projected Score
17.5
THE CITADEL
Book Implied: 5.50
54.5
TEXAS A&M
Book Implied: 51
Simulated Score
14
THE CITADEL
Book Implied: 5.50
32
TEXAS A&M
Book Implied: 51
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI Texas A&M Win
97% Win Prob
A
Sim Texas A&M Win
96% Win Prob
A
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI The Citadel (+45.5) Win
Proj Spread: +37.0
A
Sim The Citadel (+45.5) Win
Proj Spread: +18.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence 👑 Top Selection
AI o56.5 Loss
Proj Total: 72.0
A
Sim u56.5 Win
Proj Total: 46.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 17, 2026 CIT @ TA&M 0 - 41
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +79.0% more
Texas A&M: 1.5 vs The Citadel: 0.7
First Downs (L5) +32.9% more
Texas A&M: 16.7 vs The Citadel: 12.5
Total Yards (L5) +8.4% more
Texas A&M: 305.6 vs The Citadel: 281.9
Rushing Yards (L5) +40.8% more
The Citadel: 207.3 vs Texas A&M: 122.7
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
CIT Score 17.5 0
TA&M Score 54.5 41
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 16.7 / 12.5 26.0 / 12.0
Rushing Yards 122.7 / 207.3 264.0 / 140.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.4 0.64 / 0.33
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.43 / 0.57
Total Yards 305.6 / 281.9 501.0 / 183.0
Turnovers 1.5 / 0.7 0.0 / 0.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- / -- → -- / --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: +45.5 / -45.5 → +45.5 / -45.5
27%TICKETS73%
32%MONEY68%
Total (O/U)
Open: 56.5 → 56.5
70%TICKETS30%
60%MONEY40%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CIT
--
TA&M Advantage
4-4-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 9.4 ATS +/-: -3.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CIT
--
TA&M Advantage
4-4-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 9.4 ATS +/-: -3.4
⚖️ Over/Under
CIT
--
TA&M
3-5-0
O: 37.5% / U: 62.5% Total +/-: -4.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TA&M
CIT
TA&M
CIT
ML
62% 5-3
67% 2-1
75% 6-2
67% 2-1
ATS
50% 4-4
100% 3-0
38% 3-5
100% 3-0
TTL
25% 2-6
0% 0-3
50% 4-4
33% 1-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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