Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / FAU @ Army FAU @ ARMY

FLORIDA ATLANTIC

FAUFAU

4-2  |  Road

24
FINAL
Sat, Oct 17 • 12:00 PM ET
Michie Stadium
View Odds Details →

ARMY

ARMYARMY

4-2  |  Home

56
Key Game
Collin Rogers
KEY GAME

Collin Rogers

#41 | Place kicker
@
Dawson Jones
KEY GAME

Dawson Jones

#95 | Place kicker
Player
Collin Rogers None-None
Dawson Jones None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
FAU
29%
📊
ARMY
71%
▲ Edge: +14.70% (ARMY)
FAU 47% Book Odds: +114
ARMY 56% Book Odds: -128
Book Implied: 46.70% / 56.10%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
55.5
Projected
Book Total
55.5
Over / Under Line
Over 55.5 50%
Under 55.5 50%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-9.5
ARMY
Book Spread
-2.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +7.0 points (Army)
FAUFAU (+2.5) 0 ArmyARMY (-2.5)
Army Black Knights (-2.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

FAU Cover

24.9%

Army Cover

75.1%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around ARMY -9.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ARMY)

FAU By 1-6 points

11.1%

FAU By 7-13 points

7.6%

ARMY By 1-6 points

15.5%

ARMY By 7-13 points

19.7%

AI Model Projected Score
23
FLORIDA ATLANTIC
Book Implied: 26.50
32.5
ARMY
Book Implied: 29
Simulated Score
26
FLORIDA ATLANTIC
Book Implied: 26.50
31
ARMY
Book Implied: 29
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI Army Win
71% Win Prob
A
Sim Army Win
68% Win Prob
A
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI Army (-2.5) Win
Proj Spread: -9.5
A
Sim Army (-2.5) Win
Proj Spread: -5.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI u55.5 Loss
Proj Total: 55.5
D
Sim o55.5 Win
Proj Total: 57.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 17, 2026 FAU @ ARMY 24 - 56
Sep 7, 2024 ARMY @ FAU 24 - 7
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5) +131.7% more
Army: 303.6 vs Florida Atlantic: 131.1
Time of Possession (L5) +15.0% more
Army: 0.6 vs Florida Atlantic: 0.4
Turnovers (L5) +20.0% more
Florida Atlantic: 0.6 vs Army: 0.4
Total Yards (L5) +15.3% more
Florida Atlantic: 446.3 vs Army: 377.8
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
FAU Score 23.0 24
ARMY Score 32.5 56
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 21.6 / 24.5 22.0 / 28.0
Rushing Yards 303.6 / 131.1 479.0 / 108.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.5 / 0.5 0.58 / 0.71
Time of Possession 0.6 / 0.4 0.55 / 0.45
Total Yards 377.8 / 446.3 481.0 / 432.0
Turnovers 0.4 / 0.6 0.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +130 / -155 → +114 / -128 ↓
21%TICKETS79%
61%MONEY39%
Spread (ATS)
Open: +3 / -3 → +2.5 / -2.5 ↓
45%TICKETS55%
44%MONEY56%
Total (O/U)
Open: 57.5 → 55.5 ↓
49%TICKETS51%
51%MONEY49%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
FAU
5-3-0 (62.5%)
Margin: 2.0 ATS +/-: -1.1
ARMY Advantage
5-2-0 (71.4%)
Margin: 13.1 ATS +/-: +5.7
🎯 ATS (Spread)
FAU Advantage
5-3-0 (62.5%)
Margin: 2.0 ATS +/-: -1.1
ARMY
3-3-1 (50.0%)
Margin: 13.1 ATS +/-: +5.7
⚖️ Over/Under
FAU
7-1-0
O: 87.5% / U: 12.5% Total +/-: +11.9
ARMY
5-2-0
O: 71.4% / U: 28.6% Total +/-: +7.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ARMY
FAU
ARMY
FAU
ML
86% 6-1
88% 7-1
86% 6-1
75% 6-2
ATS
86% 6-1
38% 3-5
57% 4-3
38% 3-5
TTL
29% 2-5
38% 3-5
43% 3-4
62% 5-3
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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