Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Louisiana Tech @ UL Monroe LT @ ULM

LOUISIANA TECH

LOUISIANA TECHLT

4-2  |  Road

24
FINAL
Sat, Oct 17 • 8:00 PM ET
Malone Stadium
View Odds Details →

UL MONROE

UL MONROEULM

0-6  |  Home

0
Key Game
Lexington Matthews
KEY GAME

Lexington Matthews

#29 | Punter
@
Makenzie Ryan
KEY GAME

Makenzie Ryan

#47 | Punter
Player
Lexington Matthews None-None
Makenzie Ryan None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
LOUISIANA TECH
73%
📊
UL MONROE
27%
▲ Edge: +8% (ULM)
LOUISIANA TECH 85% Book Odds: -564
UL MONROE 19% Book Odds: +430
Book Implied: 84.90% / 18.90%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
56.0
Projected
Book Total
56.0
Over / Under Line
Over 56.0 50%
Under 56.0 50%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+10.4
UL MONROE
Book Spread
+13.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +3.1 points (UL Monroe)
Louisiana TechLT (-13.5) 0 UL MonroeULM (+13.5)
UL Monroe Warhawks (+13.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Louisiana Tech Cover

22.9%

UL Monroe Cover

77.1%

-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around ULM +10.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ULM)

LT By 1-6 points

15.1%

LT By 7-13 points

19.7%

ULM By 1-6 points

10.4%

ULM By 7-13 points

7.0%

AI Model Projected Score
33.2
LOUISIANA TECH
Book Implied: 34.80
22.8
UL MONROE
Book Implied: 21.20
Simulated Score
25
LOUISIANA TECH
Book Implied: 34.80
28
UL MONROE
Book Implied: 21.20
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Louisiana Tech Win
73% Win Prob
A
Sim UL Monroe Loss
61% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI UL Monroe (+13.5) Loss
Proj Spread: +10.4
C
Sim UL Monroe (+13.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -3.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI u56.0 Win
Proj Total: 56.0
D
Sim u56.0 Win
Proj Total: 53.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 17, 2026 LT @ ULM 24 - 0
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5) +32.9% more
Louisiana Tech: 174.1 vs UL Monroe: 116.8
Third Down Efficiency (L5) +16.0% more
Louisiana Tech: 0.5 vs UL Monroe: 0.3
First Downs (L5) +14.4% more
Louisiana Tech: 22.6 vs UL Monroe: 19.3
Total Yards (L5) +10.2% more
Louisiana Tech: 431.0 vs UL Monroe: 387.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
LT Score 33.2 24
ULM Score 22.8 0
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 19.3 / 22.6 12.0 / 18.0
Rushing Yards 116.8 / 174.1 66.0 / 152.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.3 / 0.5 0.2 / 0.46
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.46 / 0.54
Total Yards 387.0 / 431.0 231.0 / 332.0
Turnovers 1.4 / 1.5 2.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -694 / +464 → -564 / +430 ↑
99%TICKETS1%
97%MONEY3%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -14.5 / +14.5 → -13.5 / +13.5 ↑
39%TICKETS61%
25%MONEY75%
Total (O/U)
Open: 53.5 → 56 ↑
41%TICKETS59%
50%MONEY50%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
LT Advantage
5-2-0 (71.4%)
Margin: 11.3 ATS +/-: +8.3
ULM
1-6-0 (14.3%)
Margin: -17.1 ATS +/-: -5.7
🎯 ATS (Spread)
LT Advantage
6-1-0 (85.7%)
Margin: 11.3 ATS +/-: +8.3
ULM
2-5-0 (28.6%)
Margin: -17.1 ATS +/-: -5.7
⚖️ Over/Under
LT
5-2-0
O: 71.4% / U: 28.6% Total +/-: +2.4
ULM
4-3-0
O: 57.1% / U: 42.9% Total +/-: +3.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ULM
LT
ULM
LT
ML
71% 5-2
100% 7-0
43% 3-4
43% 3-4
ATS
14% 1-6
43% 3-4
29% 2-5
57% 4-3
TTL
71% 5-2
57% 4-3
57% 4-3
57% 4-3
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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