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GEORGIA STATE

GEORGIA STGAST

4-2  |  Road

22
FINAL
Sat, Oct 17 • 12:00 PM ET
Bridgeforth Stadium
View Odds Details →

JAMES MADISON

JAMES MADISONJMU

7-0  |  Home

49
Key Game
Samer Layous
KEY GAME

Samer Layous

#39 | Place kicker
@
Patrick Rea
KEY GAME

Patrick Rea

#11 | Punter
Player
Samer Layous None-None
Patrick Rea None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
GEORGIA ST
10%
📊
JAMES MADISON
90%
▲ Edge: +12.40% (JMU)
GEORGIA ST 26% Book Odds: +280
JAMES MADISON 78% Book Odds: -355
Book Implied: 26.30% / 78%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
60.5
Projected
Book Total
58.5
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +2.0 (Over)
Over 58.5 57%
Under 58.5 43%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-23.5
JAMES MADISON
Book Spread
-8.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +15.0 points (James Madison)
Georgia StGAST (+8.5) 0 James MadisonJMU (-8.5)
James Madison Dukes (-8.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Georgia St Cover

4.7%

James Madison Cover

95.3%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around JMU -23.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (JMU)

GAST By 1-6 points

2.7%

GAST By 7-13 points

1.2%

JMU By 1-6 points

6.2%

JMU By 7-13 points

12.5%

AI Model Projected Score
18.5
GEORGIA STATE
Book Implied: 25
42
JAMES MADISON
Book Implied: 33.50
Simulated Score
23
GEORGIA STATE
Book Implied: 25
35
JAMES MADISON
Book Implied: 33.50
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI James Madison Win
90% Win Prob
A
Sim James Madison Win
88% Win Prob
A
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI James Madison (-8.5) Win
Proj Spread: -23.5
A
Sim James Madison (-8.5) Win
Proj Spread: -12.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI o58.5 Win
Proj Total: 60.5
C
Sim u58.5 Loss
Proj Total: 58.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 17, 2026 GAST @ JMU 22 - 49
Oct 4, 2025 JMU @ GAST 14 - 7
Nov 9, 2024 GAST @ JMU 7 - 38
Nov 4, 2023 JMU @ GAST 42 - 14
Nov 19, 2022 GAST @ JMU 40 - 42
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5) +23.3% more
James Madison: 227.4 vs Georgia State: 184.4
Turnovers (L5) +62.1% more
Georgia State: 1.6 vs James Madison: 0.6
Third Down Efficiency (L5) +9.0% more
Georgia State: 0.5 vs James Madison: 0.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
GAST Score 18.5 22
JMU Score 42.0 49
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 22.7 / 21.9 24.0 / 22.0
Rushing Yards 227.4 / 184.4 250.0 / 188.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.5 0.5 / 0.31
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.5 / 0.5
Total Yards 467.5 / 440.7 515.0 / 373.0
Turnovers 0.6 / 1.6 1.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +340 / -441 → +280 / -355 ↓
3%TICKETS97%
5%MONEY95%
Spread (ATS)
Open: +12.5 / -12.5 → +8.5 / -8.5 ↓
38%TICKETS62%
49%MONEY51%
Total (O/U)
Open: 54.5 → 58.5 ↑
44%TICKETS56%
54%MONEY46%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
GAST
4-3-0 (57.1%)
Margin: 9.9 ATS +/-: +8.7
JMU Advantage
7-2-0 (77.8%)
Margin: 20.2 ATS +/-: +8.7
🎯 ATS (Spread)
GAST Advantage
5-2-0 (71.4%)
Margin: 9.9 ATS +/-: +8.7
JMU
6-3-0 (66.7%)
Margin: 20.2 ATS +/-: +8.7
⚖️ Over/Under
GAST
5-2-0
O: 71.4% / U: 28.6% Total +/-: +6.4
JMU
5-4-0
O: 55.6% / U: 44.4% Total +/-: +5.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
JMU
GAST
JMU
GAST
ML
67% 6-3
71% 5-2
44% 4-5
71% 5-2
ATS
44% 4-5
29% 2-5
67% 6-3
86% 6-1
TTL
44% 4-5
29% 2-5
33% 3-6
43% 3-4
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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