Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Toledo @ E Michigan TOL @ EMU

TOLEDO

TOLEDOTOL

5-2  |  Road

34
FINAL
Sat, Oct 17 • 3:30 PM ET
Rynearson Stadium
View Odds Details →

EASTERN MICHIGAN

E MICHIGANEMU

4-4  |  Home

14
Key Game
Markus Meincke
KEY GAME

Markus Meincke

#47 | Punter
@
Daniel Hull
KEY GAME

Daniel Hull

#39 | Punter
Player
Markus Meincke None-None
Daniel Hull None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
TOLEDO
70%
📊
E MICHIGAN
30%
▲ Edge: +1.30% (EMU)
TOLEDO 74% Book Odds: -291
E MICHIGAN 29% Book Odds: +245
Book Implied: 74.40% / 29%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
53.4
Projected
Book Total
53.0
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +0.4 (Over)
Over 53.0 52%
Under 53.0 48%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-9.0
TOLEDO
Book Spread
-7.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.5 points (Toledo)
ToledoTOL (-7.5) 0 E MichiganEMU (+7.5)
Toledo Rockets (-7.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Toledo Cover

74.0%

E Michigan Cover

26.0%

-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around TOL -9.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TOL)

TOL By 1-6 points

15.7%

TOL By 7-13 points

19.7%

EMU By 1-6 points

11.5%

EMU By 7-13 points

8.0%

AI Model Projected Score
31.2
TOLEDO
Book Implied: 30.20
22.2
EASTERN MICHIGAN
Book Implied: 22.80
Simulated Score
34
TOLEDO
Book Implied: 30.20
21
EASTERN MICHIGAN
Book Implied: 22.80
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI Toledo Win
70% Win Prob
A
Sim Toledo Win
90% Win Prob
A
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Toledo (-7.5) Win
Proj Spread: -9.0
C
Sim Toledo (-7.5) Win
Proj Spread: -13.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
AI o53.0 Loss
Proj Total: 53.4
D
Sim o53.0 Loss
Proj Total: 55.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 17, 2026 TOL @ EMU 34 - 14
Nov 2, 2024 TOL @ EMU 29 - 28
Nov 8, 2023 EMU @ TOL 23 - 49
Oct 29, 2022 TOL @ EMU 27 - 24
Nov 2, 2021 EMU @ TOL 52 - 49
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5) +27.2% more
Toledo: 190.2 vs Eastern Michigan: 138.4
Total Yards (L5) +14.6% more
Toledo: 434.3 vs Eastern Michigan: 371.0
Third Down Efficiency (L5) +11.0% more
Eastern Michigan: 0.5 vs Toledo: 0.4
First Downs (L5) +8.4% more
Eastern Michigan: 22.6 vs Toledo: 20.8
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
TOL Score 31.2 34
EMU Score 22.2 14
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 22.6 / 20.8 21.0 / 21.0
Rushing Yards 138.4 / 190.2 34.0 / 192.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.5 / 0.4 0.33 / 0.38
Time of Possession 0.6 / 0.5 0.44 / 0.56
Total Yards 371.0 / 434.3 276.0 / 480.0
Turnovers 1.3 / 1.4 2.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -208 / +173 → -291 / +245 ↓
95%TICKETS5%
88%MONEY12%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -5 / +5 → -7.5 / +7.5 ↓
43%TICKETS57%
57%MONEY43%
Total (O/U)
Open: 53 → 53
39%TICKETS61%
45%MONEY55%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
TOL Advantage
6-2-0 (75.0%)
Margin: 12.0 ATS +/-: +1.8
EMU
4-5-0 (44.4%)
Margin: -4.3 ATS +/-: -1.6
🎯 ATS (Spread)
TOL Advantage
4-3-1 (57.1%)
Margin: 12.0 ATS +/-: +1.8
EMU
4-5-0 (44.4%)
Margin: -4.3 ATS +/-: -1.6
⚖️ Over/Under
TOL
6-2-0
O: 75.0% / U: 25.0% Total +/-: +11.8
EMU
2-7-0
O: 22.2% / U: 77.8% Total +/-: -3.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
EMU
TOL
EMU
TOL
ML
67% 6-3
75% 6-2
56% 5-4
88% 7-1
ATS
56% 5-4
43% 3-4-1
56% 5-4
57% 4-3-1
TTL
56% 5-4
75% 6-2
56% 5-4
75% 6-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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