MASSACHUSETTS
UMASSMASS
4-3 | Road
18
BUFFALO
BUFFALOBUFF
4-3 | Home
25
Key Game
KEY GAME
Edward Phillipson
#43 | Punter@
KEY GAME
Oliver Hautanen
#31 | Place kicker| Player | |
|---|---|
| Edward Phillipson | None-None |
| Oliver Hautanen | None-None |
None-None
W-L
None-None
AI Model Win Probability
UMASS
30%
BUFFALO
70%
UMASS
33%
Book Odds: +205
BUFFALO
71%
Book Odds: -250
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
53.5
Projected
Book Total
43.5
Over / Under Line
▲
Edge: +10.0 (Over)
Over 43.5
74%
Under 43.5
26%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-8.5
BUFFALO
Book Spread
-6.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.0 points (Buffalo)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around BUFF -8.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (BUFF)
MASS By 1-6 points
11.8%
MASS By 7-13 points
8.4%
BUFF By 1-6 points
15.9%
BUFF By 7-13 points
19.6%
AI Model Projected Score
Massachusetts
22.5
MASSACHUSETTS
Book Implied: 18.50
Buffalo
31
BUFFALO
Book Implied: 25
Simulated Score
Massachusetts
19
MASSACHUSETTS
Book Implied: 18.50
Buffalo
23
BUFFALO
Book Implied: 25
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
👑 Top Selection
AI
Buffalo
Win
70% Win Prob
A
Sim
Buffalo
Win
65% Win Prob
B
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Buffalo (-6.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -8.5
D
Sim
UMass (+6.5)
Loss
Proj Spread: +4.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI
o43.5
Loss
Proj Total: 53.5
A
Sim
u43.5
Win
Proj Total: 42.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Oct 17, 2026
MASS @ BUFF
18 - 25
Oct 18, 2025
BUFF @ MASS
28 - 21
Sep 14, 2024
MASS @ BUFF
3 - 34
Oct 15, 2022
BUFF @ MASS
34 - 7
Nov 27, 2015
MASS @ BUFF
31 - 26
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5)
+31.8% more
Buffalo: 165.3
vs
Massachusetts: 125.5
First Downs (L5)
+24.2% more
Buffalo: 20.6
vs
Massachusetts: 16.6
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
MASS Score
22.5
18
BUFF Score
31.0
25
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs
20.6 / 16.6
19.0 / 17.0
Rushing Yards
165.3 / 125.5
217.0 / 171.0
Third Down Efficiency
0.4 / 0.4
0.42 / 0.33
Time of Possession
0.5 / 0.5
0.47 / 0.53
Total Yards
334.5 / 321.5
351.0 / 339.0
Turnovers
1.1 / 1.0
2.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +130 / -155
→
+205 / -250
↑
Spread (ATS)
Open: +3.5 / -3.5
→
+6.5 / -6.5
↑
Total (O/U)
Open: 47.5
→
43.5
↓
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MASS
4-4-0
(50.0%)
Margin: 5.4
ATS +/-: +4.0
BUFF
Advantage
5-3-0
(62.5%)
Margin: -2.8
ATS +/-: +0.2
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MASS
4-4-0
(50.0%)
Margin: 5.4
ATS +/-: +4.0
BUFF
4-4-0
(50.0%)
Margin: -2.8
ATS +/-: +0.2
⚖️ Over/Under
MASS
3-5-0
O: 37.5% / U: 62.5%
Total +/-: -1.9
BUFF
5-3-0
O: 62.5% / U: 37.5%
Total +/-: +0.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
BUFF
MASS
BUFF
MASS
ML
88%
7-1
50%
3-3
88%
7-1
50%
4-4
ATS
50%
4-4
50%
3-3
62%
5-3
50%
4-4
TTL
50%
4-4
33%
2-4
62%
5-3
50%
4-4
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