Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Ball State @ Bowling Green BALL @ BGSU

BALL STATE

BALL STATEBALL

2-5  |  Road

32
FINAL
Sat, Oct 17 • 12:00 PM ET
Doyt L. Perry Stadium
View Odds Details →

BOWLING GREEN

BOWLING GREENBGSU

2-5  |  Home

31
Key Game
Cole Stumbaugh
KEY GAME

Cole Stumbaugh

#32 | Punter
@
Ryan Kingston
KEY GAME

Ryan Kingston

#30 | Punter
Player
Cole Stumbaugh None-None
Ryan Kingston None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
BALL STATE
38%
📊
BOWLING GREEN
62%
▲ Edge: +5.40% (BALL)
BALL STATE 33% Book Odds: +205
BOWLING GREEN 71% Book Odds: -240
Book Implied: 32.80% / 70.60%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
52.0
Projected
Book Total
46.5
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +5.5 (Over)
Over 46.5 62%
Under 46.5 39%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+5.0
BALL STATE
Book Spread
+6
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Ball State)
Ball StateBALL (+6) 0 Bowling GreenBGSU (-6)
Ball State Cardinals (+6) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Ball State Cover

64.0%

Bowling Green Cover

36.0%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around BALL +5.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (BALL)

BALL By 1-6 points

14.2%

BALL By 7-13 points

11.3%

BGSU By 1-6 points

16.9%

BGSU By 7-13 points

18.5%

AI Model Projected Score
23.5
BALL STATE
Book Implied: 20.20
28.5
BOWLING GREEN
Book Implied: 26.20
Simulated Score
17
BALL STATE
Book Implied: 20.20
26
BOWLING GREEN
Book Implied: 26.20
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Bowling Green Loss
62% Win Prob
C
Sim Bowling Green Loss
81% Win Prob
A
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Ball State (+6) Win
Proj Spread: +5.0
D
Sim Bowling Green (-6) Loss
Proj Spread: -9.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence 👑 Top Selection
AI o46.5 Win
Proj Total: 52.0
B
Sim u46.5 Loss
Proj Total: 43.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 17, 2026 BALL @ BGSU 32 - 31
Nov 23, 2024 BGSU @ BALL 38 - 13
Nov 1, 2023 BALL @ BGSU 21 - 24
Nov 24, 2015 BGSU @ BALL 48 - 10
Nov 28, 2014 BALL @ BGSU 41 - 24
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5) +22.2% more
Bowling Green: 134.3 vs Ball State: 109.9
Third Down Efficiency (L5) +12.0% more
Bowling Green: 0.4 vs Ball State: 0.3
Turnovers (L5) +25.0% more
Ball State: 1.1 vs Bowling Green: 0.8
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
BALL Score 23.5 32
BGSU Score 28.5 31
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 18.3 / 18.2 18.0 / 23.0
Rushing Yards 134.3 / 109.9 98.0 / 240.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.3 0.42 / 0.42
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.5 / 0.5
Total Yards 304.3 / 322.8 313.0 / 435.0
Turnovers 0.8 / 1.1 1.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +230 / -285 → +205 / -240 ↓
5%TICKETS95%
14%MONEY86%
Spread (ATS)
Open: +7 / -7 → +6 / -6 ↓
33%TICKETS67%
26%MONEY74%
Total (O/U)
Open: 44.5 → 46.5 ↑
70%TICKETS30%
76%MONEY24%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
BALL Advantage
3-5-0 (37.5%)
Margin: -13.3 ATS +/-: -0.5
BGSU
2-6-0 (25.0%)
Margin: -11.0 ATS +/-: -2.8
🎯 ATS (Spread)
BALL Advantage
5-3-0 (62.5%)
Margin: -13.3 ATS +/-: -0.5
BGSU
3-5-0 (37.5%)
Margin: -11.0 ATS +/-: -2.8
⚖️ Over/Under
BALL
6-2-0
O: 75.0% / U: 25.0% Total +/-: +5.5
BGSU
6-2-0
O: 75.0% / U: 25.0% Total +/-: +2.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
BGSU
BALL
BGSU
BALL
ML
62% 5-3
88% 7-1
62% 5-3
88% 7-1
ATS
62% 5-3
62% 5-3
38% 3-5
38% 3-5
TTL
100% 8-0
75% 6-2
50% 4-4
50% 4-4
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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