Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / New Mexico @ Hawai'i UNM @ HAW

NEW MEXICO

NEW MEXICOUNM

5-1  |  Road

21
FINAL
Sat, Oct 17 • 10:30 PM ET
Clarence T.C. Ching Athletics Complex
View Odds Details →

HAWAI'I

HAWAI'IHAW

1-6  |  Home

10
Key Game
Michael Kern
KEY GAME

Michael Kern

#19 | Punter
@
Gehrig Heil
KEY GAME

Gehrig Heil

#47 | Punter
Player
Michael Kern None-None
Gehrig Heil None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
NEW MEXICO
64%
📊
HAWAI'I
36%
▲ Edge: +18.80% (HAW)
NEW MEXICO 87% Book Odds: -676
HAWAI'I 17% Book Odds: +490
Book Implied: 87.10% / 16.90%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
49.0
Projected
Book Total
46.5
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +2.5 (Over)
Over 46.5 56%
Under 46.5 44%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+6.0
HAWAI'I
Book Spread
+14.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +8.5 points (Hawai'i)
New MexicoUNM (-14.5) 0 Hawai'iHAW (+14.5)
Hawai'i Rainbow Warriors (+14.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

New Mexico Cover

33.4%

Hawai'i Cover

66.6%

-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around HAW +6.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (HAW)

UNM By 1-6 points

16.7%

UNM By 7-13 points

19.0%

HAW By 1-6 points

13.5%

HAW By 7-13 points

10.4%

AI Model Projected Score
27.5
NEW MEXICO
Book Implied: 30.50
21.5
HAWAI'I
Book Implied: 16
Simulated Score
22
NEW MEXICO
Book Implied: 30.50
30
HAWAI'I
Book Implied: 16
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence 👑 Top Selection
AI New Mexico Win
64% Win Prob
B
Sim Hawai'i Loss
79% Win Prob
A
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI Hawai'i (+14.5) Win
Proj Spread: +6.0
A
Sim Hawai'i (+14.5) Win
Proj Spread: -8.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
AI o46.5 Loss
Proj Total: 49.0
C
Sim o46.5 Loss
Proj Total: 52.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 17, 2026 UNM @ HAW 21 - 10
Nov 30, 2024 UNM @ HAW 30 - 38
Oct 21, 2023 HAW @ UNM 21 - 42
Nov 7, 2020 UNM @ HAW 33 - 39
Oct 26, 2019 HAW @ UNM 45 - 31
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5) +57.9% more
New Mexico: 204.5 vs Hawai'i: 86.0
Turnovers (L5) +54.0% more
Hawai'i: 1.0 vs New Mexico: 0.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
UNM Score 27.5 21
HAW Score 21.5 10
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 20.2 / 20.4 20.0 / 16.0
Rushing Yards 86.0 / 204.5 48.0 / 243.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.4 0.23 / 0.38
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.6 0.47 / 0.53
Total Yards 363.3 / 394.7 298.0 / 337.0
Turnovers 1.0 / 0.5 2.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -722 / +478 → -676 / +490
98%TICKETS2%
94%MONEY6%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -15 / +15 → -14.5 / +14.5 ↑
61%TICKETS39%
60%MONEY40%
Total (O/U)
Open: 46.5 → 46.5
81%TICKETS19%
85%MONEY15%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
UNM Advantage
7-1-0 (87.5%)
Margin: 23.1 ATS +/-: +10.3
HAW
2-6-0 (25.0%)
Margin: -3.8 ATS +/-: -0.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
UNM Advantage
6-2-0 (75.0%)
Margin: 23.1 ATS +/-: +10.3
HAW
4-4-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -3.8 ATS +/-: -0.4
⚖️ Over/Under
UNM
3-4-0
O: 42.9% / U: 57.1% Total +/-: +1.4
HAW
2-6-0
O: 25.0% / U: 75.0% Total +/-: -4.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
HAW
UNM
HAW
UNM
ML
62% 5-3
100% 7-0
75% 6-2
75% 6-2
ATS
50% 4-4
57% 4-3
75% 6-2
50% 4-4
TTL
38% 3-5
29% 2-5
25% 2-6
25% 2-6
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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