Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Kent State @ South Florida KENT @ USF

KENT STATE

KENT STATEKENT

2-5  |  Road

2
FINAL
Sat, Oct 17 • 7:00 PM ET
Raymond James Stadium
View Odds Details →

SOUTH FLORIDA

SOUTH FLORIDAUSF

5-2  |  Home

29
Key Game
Sean Leonard
KEY GAME

Sean Leonard

#96 | Place kicker
@
Luke Goater
KEY GAME

Luke Goater

#39 | Punter
Player
Sean Leonard None-None
Luke Goater None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
KENT STATE
11%
📊
SOUTH FLORIDA
89%
▲ Edge: +0.80% (KENT)
KENT STATE 11% Book Odds: +850
SOUTH FLORIDA 94% Book Odds: -1449
Book Implied: 10.50% / 93.50%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
53.5
Projected
Book Total
46.5
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +7.0 (Over)
Over 46.5 67%
Under 46.5 33%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-21.5
SOUTH FLORIDA
Book Spread
-20.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (South Florida)
Kent StateKENT (+20.5) 0 South FloridaUSF (-20.5)
South Florida Bulls (-20.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Kent State Cover

6.2%

South Florida Cover

93.8%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around USF -21.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (USF)

KENT By 1-6 points

3.5%

KENT By 7-13 points

1.7%

USF By 1-6 points

7.5%

USF By 7-13 points

14.2%

AI Model Projected Score
16
KENT STATE
Book Implied: 13
37.5
SOUTH FLORIDA
Book Implied: 33.50
Simulated Score
15
KENT STATE
Book Implied: 13
33
SOUTH FLORIDA
Book Implied: 33.50
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI South Florida Win
89% Win Prob
A
Sim South Florida Win
96% Win Prob
A
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI South Florida (-20.5) Win
Proj Spread: -21.5
D
Sim Kent State (+20.5) Loss
Proj Spread: +18.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
AI o46.5 Loss
Proj Total: 53.5
A
Sim o46.5 Loss
Proj Total: 48.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 17, 2026 KENT @ USF 2 - 29
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5) +49.5% more
South Florida: 143.8 vs Kent State: 96.2
First Downs (L5) +17.6% more
South Florida: 19.8 vs Kent State: 16.9
Total Yards (L5) +14.4% more
South Florida: 333.7 vs Kent State: 291.7
Third Down Efficiency (L5) +9.0% more
South Florida: 0.4 vs Kent State: 0.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
KENT Score 16.0 2
USF Score 37.5 29
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 19.8 / 16.9 16.0 / 15.0
Rushing Yards 143.8 / 96.2 78.0 / 63.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.3 0.27 / 0.35
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.47 / 0.53
Total Yards 333.7 / 291.7 271.0 / 228.0
Turnovers 0.8 / 1.4 0.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +662 / -1136 → +850 / -1449 ↑
1%TICKETS99%
5%MONEY95%
Spread (ATS)
Open: +19.5 / -19.5 → +20.5 / -20.5 ↑
52%TICKETS48%
59%MONEY41%
Total (O/U)
Open: 48.5 → 46.5 ↓
74%TICKETS26%
66%MONEY34%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
KENT
3-6-0 (33.3%)
Margin: -16.2 ATS +/-: -4.9
USF Advantage
6-2-0 (75.0%)
Margin: 12.5 ATS +/-: +0.8
🎯 ATS (Spread)
KENT
4-5-0 (44.4%)
Margin: -16.2 ATS +/-: -4.9
USF Advantage
4-4-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 12.5 ATS +/-: +0.8
⚖️ Over/Under
KENT
5-4-0
O: 55.6% / U: 44.4% Total +/-: -4.6
USF
3-5-0
O: 37.5% / U: 62.5% Total +/-: -8.1
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
USF
KENT
USF
KENT
ML
71% 5-2
89% 8-1
71% 5-2
100% 9-0
ATS
43% 3-4
56% 5-4
29% 2-5
44% 4-5
TTL
29% 2-5
44% 4-5
29% 2-5
56% 5-4
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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