Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Tulsa @ Rice TLSA @ RICE

TULSA

TULSATLSA

4-3  |  Road

38
FINAL
Sat, Oct 17 • 4:30 PM ET
First Community Stadium
View Odds Details →

RICE

RICERICE

1-6  |  Home

17
Key Game
Max Tulen
KEY GAME

Max Tulen

#29 | Punter
@
Charlie Durkin
KEY GAME

Charlie Durkin

#29 | Punter
Player
Max Tulen None-None
Charlie Durkin None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
TULSA
56%
📊
RICE
44%
▲ Edge: +6.20% (RICE)
TULSA 65% Book Odds: -186
RICE 38% Book Odds: +162
Book Implied: 65% / 38.20%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
48.0
Projected
Book Total
46.0
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +2.0 (Over)
Over 46.0 52%
Under 46.0 48%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+2.4
RICE
Book Spread
+4.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.1 points (Rice)
TulsaTLSA (-4.5) 0 RiceRICE (+4.5)
Rice Owls (+4.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Tulsa Cover

43.2%

Rice Cover

56.8%

-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around RICE +2.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (RICE)

TLSA By 1-6 points

16.9%

TLSA By 7-13 points

17.1%

RICE By 1-6 points

15.5%

RICE By 7-13 points

13.4%

AI Model Projected Score
25.2
TULSA
Book Implied: 25.20
22.8
RICE
Book Implied: 20.80
Simulated Score
19
TULSA
Book Implied: 25.20
29
RICE
Book Implied: 20.80
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Tulsa Win
56% Win Prob
D
Sim Rice Loss
84% Win Prob
A
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Rice (+4.5) Loss
Proj Spread: +2.4
C
Sim Rice (+4.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -10.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
AI o46.0 Win
Proj Total: 48.0
D
Sim o46.0 Win
Proj Total: 48.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 17, 2026 TLSA @ RICE 38 - 17
Oct 19, 2023 RICE @ TLSA 42 - 10
Oct 5, 2013 RICE @ TLSA 30 - 27
Key Model Drivers
Total Yards (L5) +19.6% more
Tulsa: 360.0 vs Rice: 289.4
First Downs (L5) +13.1% more
Tulsa: 18.1 vs Rice: 15.7
Third Down Efficiency (L5) +9.0% more
Tulsa: 0.3 vs Rice: 0.2
Turnovers (L5) +99.0% more
Rice: 1.6 vs Tulsa: 0.6
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
TLSA Score 25.2 38
RICE Score 22.8 17
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 15.7 / 18.1 19.0 / 22.0
Rushing Yards 203.9 / 141.6 289.0 / 152.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.2 / 0.3 0.36 / 0.55
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.4 0.49 / 0.51
Total Yards 289.4 / 360.0 351.0 / 401.0
Turnovers 1.6 / 0.6 1.0 / 0.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -164 / +138 → -186 / +162 ↓
95%TICKETS5%
23%MONEY77%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -3.5 / +3.5 → -4.5 / +4.5 ↓
60%TICKETS40%
58%MONEY42%
Total (O/U)
Open: 47 → 46 ↓
76%TICKETS24%
77%MONEY23%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
TLSA Advantage
4-4-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 5.4 ATS +/-: +1.9
RICE
1-7-0 (12.5%)
Margin: -10.8 ATS +/-: -1.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
TLSA
4-4-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 5.4 ATS +/-: +1.9
RICE
4-4-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -10.8 ATS +/-: -1.1
⚖️ Over/Under
TLSA
4-4-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +1.4
RICE
4-4-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +3.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
RICE
TLSA
RICE
TLSA
ML
100% 8-0
75% 6-2
75% 6-2
88% 7-1
ATS
38% 3-5
62% 5-3
25% 2-6
38% 3-5
TTL
62% 5-3
50% 4-4
75% 6-2
75% 6-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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