Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Navy @ UTSA NAVY @ UTSA

NAVY

NAVYNAVY

2-4  |  Road

34
FINAL
Sat, Oct 17 • 8:00 PM ET
Alamodome
View Odds Details →

UTSA

UTSAUTSA

6-1  |  Home

38
Key Game
Jacob Carlson
KEY GAME

Jacob Carlson

#11 | Punter
@
Caile Hogan
KEY GAME

Caile Hogan

#30 | Punter
Player
Jacob Carlson None-None
Caile Hogan None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
NAVY
57%
📊
UTSA
43%
▲ Edge: +21.40% (NAVY)
NAVY 36% Book Odds: +180
UTSA 69% Book Odds: -218
Book Implied: 35.70% / 68.60%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
55.0
Projected
Book Total
54.5
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +0.5 (Over)
Over 54.5 52%
Under 54.5 48%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-3.0
NAVY
Book Spread
+5.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +8.5 points (Navy)
NavyNAVY (+5.5) 0 UTSAUTSA (-5.5)
Navy Midshipmen (+5.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Navy Cover

58.5%

UTSA Cover

41.5%

-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around NAVY -3.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (NAVY)

NAVY By 1-6 points

17.0%

NAVY By 7-13 points

17.5%

UTSA By 1-6 points

15.3%

UTSA By 7-13 points

12.9%

AI Model Projected Score
29
NAVY
Book Implied: 24.50
26
UTSA
Book Implied: 30
Simulated Score
27
NAVY
Book Implied: 24.50
34
UTSA
Book Implied: 30
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Navy Loss
57% Win Prob
C
Sim UTSA Win
75% Win Prob
A
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Navy (+5.5) Win
Proj Spread: -3.0
A
Sim UTSA (-5.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -7.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
AI o54.5 Win
Proj Total: 55.0
D
Sim o54.5 Win
Proj Total: 61.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 17, 2026 NAVY @ UTSA 34 - 38
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +72.9% more
Navy: 2.2 vs UTSA: 0.6
Rushing Yards (L5) +27.3% more
Navy: 284.1 vs UTSA: 206.6
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
NAVY Score 29.0 34
UTSA Score 26.0 38
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 21.9 / 20.5 22.0 / 17.0
Rushing Yards 206.6 / 284.1 110.0 / 294.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.5 0.36 / 0.44
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.53 / 0.47
Total Yards 414.5 / 391.1 469.0 / 477.0
Turnovers 0.6 / 2.2 0.0 / 0.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +197 / -241 → +180 / -218 ↓
2%TICKETS98%
3%MONEY97%
Spread (ATS)
Open: +6.5 / -6.5 → +5.5 / -5.5 ↓
27%TICKETS73%
27%MONEY73%
Total (O/U)
Open: 56.5 → 54.5 ↓
66%TICKETS34%
67%MONEY33%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
NAVY
2-6-0 (25.0%)
Margin: -2.3 ATS +/-: -2.6
UTSA Advantage
7-1-0 (87.5%)
Margin: 7.5 ATS +/-: +4.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
NAVY
3-5-0 (37.5%)
Margin: -2.3 ATS +/-: -2.6
UTSA Advantage
5-2-1 (71.4%)
Margin: 7.5 ATS +/-: +4.1
⚖️ Over/Under
NAVY
5-3-0
O: 62.5% / U: 37.5% Total +/-: +4.9
UTSA
5-3-0
O: 62.5% / U: 37.5% Total +/-: +4.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
UTSA
NAVY
UTSA
NAVY
ML
43% 3-4
43% 3-4
62% 5-3
100% 7-0
ATS
43% 3-4
71% 5-2
25% 2-6
71% 5-2
TTL
43% 3-4
29% 2-5
62% 5-3
57% 4-3
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
UTSA Silences Doubters with 31-24 Win Over USF After Hartline's …
yahoo 3 weeks, 1 day ago
American Conference Week 6: A 100-Pound Rib Trophy, a Walk-On's …
yahoo 3 weeks, 1 day ago
Thursday Night College Football: UTSA vs. South Florida Headline…
usatoday 3 weeks, 2 days ago
UAB Rallies Past Navy 24-20 Behind McReynolds' Late 48-Yard Touc…
abcnews 1 month ago
Texas Opens SEC Play as 5.5-Point Favorite at Tennessee
yahoo 1 month, 1 week ago