NORTHWESTERN
NORTHWESTERNNU
5-1 | Road
24
MICHIGAN STATE
MICHIGAN STMSU
2-5 | Home
21
Key Game
KEY GAME
Jackson Kleather
#90 | Place kicker@
KEY GAME
Rhys Dakin
#9 | Punter| Player | |
|---|---|
| Jackson Kleather | None-None |
| Rhys Dakin | None-None |
None-None
W-L
None-None
AI Model Win Probability
NORTHWESTERN
57%
MICHIGAN ST
43%
▲ Edge: +13.50% (MSU)
NORTHWESTERN
75%
Book Odds: -298
MICHIGAN ST
29%
Book Odds: +240
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
49.4
Projected
Book Total
50.5
Over / Under Line
▼
Edge: +1.1 (Under)
Over 50.5
50%
Under 50.5
50%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+3.0
MICHIGAN STATE
Book Spread
+7
Book Line
▲ Edge: +4.0 points (Michigan State)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around MSU +3.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MSU)
NU By 1-6 points
17.0%
NU By 7-13 points
17.5%
MSU By 1-6 points
15.3%
MSU By 7-13 points
12.9%
AI Model Projected Score
Northwestern
26.2
NORTHWESTERN
Book Implied: 28.80
Michigan State
23.2
MICHIGAN STATE
Book Implied: 21.80
Simulated Score
Northwestern
24
NORTHWESTERN
Book Implied: 28.80
Michigan State
30
MICHIGAN STATE
Book Implied: 21.80
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Northwestern
Win
57% Win Prob
C
Sim
Michigan St
Loss
72% Win Prob
A
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
👑 Top Selection
AI
Michigan St (+7)
Win
Proj Spread: +3.0
B
Sim
Michigan St (+7)
Win
Proj Spread: -6.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI
u50.5
Win
Proj Total: 49.4
D
Sim
o50.5
Loss
Proj Total: 54.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Oct 17, 2026
NU @ MSU
24 - 21
Sep 3, 2021
MSU @ NU
38 - 21
Nov 28, 2020
NU @ MSU
20 - 29
Sep 21, 2019
MSU @ NU
31 - 10
Oct 6, 2018
NU @ MSU
29 - 19
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5)
+42.3% more
Northwestern: 199.4
vs
Michigan State: 115.0
Total Yards (L5)
+28.8% more
Northwestern: 423.5
vs
Michigan State: 301.6
First Downs (L5)
+16.3% more
Northwestern: 23.1
vs
Michigan State: 19.3
Turnovers (L5)
+57.0% more
Michigan State: 1.1
vs
Northwestern: 0.6
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
NU Score
26.2
24
MSU Score
23.2
21
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs
19.3 / 23.1
15.0 / 23.0
Rushing Yards
115.0 / 199.4
89.0 / 134.0
Third Down Efficiency
0.4 / 0.4
0.25 / 0.5
Time of Possession
0.5 / 0.5
0.42 / 0.58
Total Yards
301.6 / 423.5
305.0 / 360.0
Turnovers
1.1 / 0.6
1.0 / 0.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -340 / +270
→
-298 / +240
↑
Spread (ATS)
Open: -8.5 / +8.5
→
-7 / +7
↑
Total (O/U)
Open: 47.5
→
50.5
↑
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
NU
Advantage
6-1-0
(85.7%)
Margin: 18.1
ATS +/-: +10.6
MSU
2-6-0
(25.0%)
Margin: -5.9
ATS +/-: -0.6
🎯 ATS (Spread)
NU
Advantage
5-2-0
(71.4%)
Margin: 18.1
ATS +/-: +10.6
MSU
4-3-1
(57.1%)
Margin: -5.9
ATS +/-: -0.6
⚖️ Over/Under
NU
5-2-0
O: 71.4% / U: 28.6%
Total +/-: +0.5
MSU
2-6-0
O: 25.0% / U: 75.0%
Total +/-: -2.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MSU
NU
MSU
NU
ML
100%
8-0
83%
5-1
62%
5-3
71%
5-2
ATS
57%
4-3-1
50%
3-3
43%
3-4-1
57%
4-3
TTL
50%
4-4
100%
6-0
25%
2-6
43%
3-4
Contextual Game News
