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PENN STATE

PENN STATEPSU

3-4  |  Road

18
FINAL
Sat, Oct 17 • 3:30 PM ET
Michigan Stadium
View Odds Details →

MICHIGAN

MICHIGANMICH

4-2  |  Home

21
Key Game
Ryan Barker
KEY GAME

Ryan Barker

#94 | Place kicker
@
Cam Brown
KEY GAME

Cam Brown

#33 | Punter
Player
Ryan Barker None-None
Cam Brown None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
PENN STATE
33%
📊
MICHIGAN
67%
PENN STATE 35% Book Odds: +190
MICHIGAN 70% Book Odds: -230
Book Implied: 34.50% / 69.70%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
50.0
Projected
Book Total
43.5
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +6.5 (Over)
Over 43.5 65%
Under 43.5 35%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-7.6
MICHIGAN
Book Spread
-6
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.6 points (Michigan)
Penn StatePSU (+6) 0 MichiganMICH (-6)
Michigan Wolverines (-6) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Penn State Cover

29.4%

Michigan Cover

70.6%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around MICH -7.6 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MICH)

PSU By 1-6 points

12.5%

PSU By 7-13 points

9.1%

MICH By 1-6 points

16.3%

MICH By 7-13 points

19.5%

AI Model Projected Score
21.2
PENN STATE
Book Implied: 18.80
28.8
MICHIGAN
Book Implied: 24.80
Simulated Score
29
PENN STATE
Book Implied: 18.80
28
MICHIGAN
Book Implied: 24.80
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Michigan Win
67% Win Prob
B
Sim Penn State Loss
55% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Michigan (-6) Loss
Proj Spread: -7.6
C
Sim Penn State (+6) Win
Proj Spread: -1.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI o43.5 Loss
Proj Total: 50.0
A
Sim o43.5 Loss
Proj Total: 57.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 17, 2026 PSU @ MICH 18 - 21
Nov 11, 2023 MICH @ PSU 24 - 15
Oct 15, 2022 PSU @ MICH 17 - 41
Nov 13, 2021 MICH @ PSU 21 - 17
Nov 28, 2020 PSU @ MICH 27 - 17
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +102.0% more
Michigan: 2.0 vs Penn State: 1.0
Rushing Yards (L5) +15.2% more
Michigan: 132.5 vs Penn State: 115.0
Third Down Efficiency (L5) +8.0% more
Michigan: 0.4 vs Penn State: 0.3
Total Yards (L5) +14.4% more
Penn State: 358.8 vs Michigan: 307.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
PSU Score 21.2 18
MICH Score 28.8 21
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 16.8 / 19.1 15.0 / 22.0
Rushing Yards 132.5 / 115.0 211.0 / 65.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.3 0.42 / 0.33
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.47 / 0.53
Total Yards 307.1 / 358.8 301.0 / 332.0
Turnovers 2.0 / 1.0 2.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +197 / -241 → +190 / -230 ↓
12%TICKETS88%
31%MONEY69%
Spread (ATS)
Open: +6.5 / -6.5 → +6 / -6 ↓
72%TICKETS28%
80%MONEY20%
Total (O/U)
Open: 42.5 → 43.5 ↑
72%TICKETS28%
52%MONEY48%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
PSU
3-4-0 (42.9%)
Margin: 9.9 ATS +/-: -3.3
MICH Advantage
5-3-0 (62.5%)
Margin: 4.9 ATS +/-: -5.5
🎯 ATS (Spread)
PSU Advantage
3-4-0 (42.9%)
Margin: 9.9 ATS +/-: -3.3
MICH
3-5-0 (37.5%)
Margin: 4.9 ATS +/-: -5.5
⚖️ Over/Under
PSU
3-4-0
O: 42.9% / U: 57.1% Total +/-: -0.9
MICH
2-6-0
O: 25.0% / U: 75.0% Total +/-: -7.1
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MICH
PSU
MICH
PSU
ML
71% 5-2
71% 5-2
71% 5-2
57% 4-3
ATS
57% 4-3
43% 3-4
86% 6-1
29% 2-5
TTL
14% 1-6
71% 5-2
29% 2-5
43% 3-4
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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