RUTGERS
RUTGERSRUTG
2-4 | Road
37
MARYLAND
MARYLANDMD
2-5 | Home
30
Key Game
KEY GAME
Jakob Anderson
#94 | Punter@
KEY GAME
Bryce McFerson
#34 | Punter| Player | |
|---|---|
| Jakob Anderson | None-None |
| Bryce McFerson | None-None |
None-None
W-L
None-None
AI Model Win Probability
RUTGERS
46%
MARYLAND
54%
▲ Edge: +10.10% (RUTG)
RUTGERS
36%
Book Odds: +179
MARYLAND
67%
Book Odds: -206
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
56.0
Projected
Book Total
56.0
Over / Under Line
Over 56.0
50%
Under 56.0
50%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+1.6
RUTGERS
Book Spread
+6
Book Line
▲ Edge: +4.4 points (Rutgers)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around RUTG +1.6 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (RUTG)
RUTG By 1-6 points
15.9%
RUTG By 7-13 points
14.1%
MD By 1-6 points
16.8%
MD By 7-13 points
16.6%
AI Model Projected Score
Rutgers
27.2
RUTGERS
Book Implied: 25
Maryland
28.8
MARYLAND
Book Implied: 31
Simulated Score
Rutgers
34
RUTGERS
Book Implied: 25
Maryland
28
MARYLAND
Book Implied: 31
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Maryland
Loss
54% Win Prob
D
Sim
Rutgers
Win
72% Win Prob
A
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
👑 Top Selection
AI
Rutgers (+6)
Win
Proj Spread: +1.6
B
Sim
Rutgers (+6)
Win
Proj Spread: -6.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI
u56.0
Loss
Proj Total: 56.0
D
Sim
o56.0
Win
Proj Total: 62.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Oct 17, 2026
RUTG @ MD
37 - 30
Nov 8, 2025
MD @ RUTG
20 - 35
Nov 16, 2024
RUTG @ MD
31 - 17
Nov 25, 2023
MD @ RUTG
42 - 24
Nov 26, 2022
RUTG @ MD
0 - 37
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5)
+18.2% more
Maryland: 1.3
vs
Rutgers: 1.1
Rushing Yards (L5)
+26.6% more
Rutgers: 140.9
vs
Maryland: 103.4
Total Yards (L5)
+22.0% more
Rutgers: 384.6
vs
Maryland: 300.0
First Downs (L5)
+13.8% more
Rutgers: 19.3
vs
Maryland: 16.7
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
RUTG Score
27.2
37
MD Score
28.8
30
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs
16.7 / 19.3
19.0 / 28.0
Rushing Yards
103.4 / 140.9
115.0 / 151.0
Third Down Efficiency
0.3 / 0.4
0.31 / 0.64
Time of Possession
0.4 / 0.5
0.4 / 0.6
Total Yards
300.0 / 384.6
378.0 / 442.0
Turnovers
1.3 / 1.1
0.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +145 / -175
→
+179 / -206
↑
Spread (ATS)
Open: +4.5 / -4.5
→
+6 / -6
↑
Total (O/U)
Open: 58.5
→
56
↓
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
RUTG
2-5-0
(28.6%)
Margin: -4.6
ATS +/-: -5.0
MD
2-5-0
(28.6%)
Margin: -5.0
ATS +/-: -6.5
🎯 ATS (Spread)
RUTG
3-4-0
(42.9%)
Margin: -4.6
ATS +/-: -5.0
MD
3-4-0
(42.9%)
Margin: -5.0
ATS +/-: -6.5
⚖️ Over/Under
RUTG
5-2-0
O: 71.4% / U: 28.6%
Total +/-: +5.6
MD
6-1-0
O: 85.7% / U: 14.3%
Total +/-: +6.9
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MD
RUTG
MD
RUTG
ML
57%
4-3
57%
4-3
57%
4-3
57%
4-3
ATS
29%
2-5
29%
2-5
29%
2-5
43%
3-4
TTL
57%
4-3
57%
4-3
57%
4-3
57%
4-3
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