Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Wake Forest @ California WAKE @ CAL

WAKE FOREST

WAKE FORESTWAKE

6-1  |  Road

41
FINAL
Sat, Oct 17 • 10:30 PM ET
California Memorial Stadium
View Odds Details →

CALIFORNIA

CALIFORNIACAL

3-4  |  Home

7
Key Game
Ethan Hyams
KEY GAME

Ethan Hyams

#45 | Punter
@
Angus Davies
KEY GAME

Angus Davies

#29 | Punter
Player
Ethan Hyams None-None
Angus Davies None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
WAKE FOREST
60%
📊
CALIFORNIA
40%
▲ Edge: +15.80% (CAL)
WAKE FOREST 80% Book Odds: -395
CALIFORNIA 24% Book Odds: +310
Book Implied: 79.80% / 24.40%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
52.4
Projected
Book Total
54.5
Over / Under Line
▼ Edge: +2.1 (Under)
Over 54.5 47%
Under 54.5 53%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+4.0
CALIFORNIA
Book Spread
+10
Book Line
▲ Edge: +6.0 points (California)
Wake ForestWAKE (-10) 0 CaliforniaCAL (+10)
California Golden Bears (+10) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Wake Forest Cover

38.8%

California Cover

61.2%

-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around CAL +4.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CAL)

WAKE By 1-6 points

17.0%

WAKE By 7-13 points

18.0%

CAL By 1-6 points

14.7%

CAL By 7-13 points

12.1%

AI Model Projected Score
28.2
WAKE FOREST
Book Implied: 32.20
24.2
CALIFORNIA
Book Implied: 22.20
Simulated Score
28
WAKE FOREST
Book Implied: 32.20
25
CALIFORNIA
Book Implied: 22.20
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Wake Forest Win
60% Win Prob
C
Sim Wake Forest Win
62% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI California (+10) Loss
Proj Spread: +4.0
B
Sim California (+10) Loss
Proj Spread: +3.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
AI u54.5 Win
Proj Total: 52.4
D
Sim u54.5 Win
Proj Total: 53.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 17, 2026 WAKE @ CAL 41 - 7
Nov 8, 2024 CAL @ WAKE 46 - 36
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5) +36.7% more
Wake Forest: 136.7 vs California: 86.6
Third Down Efficiency (L5) +12.0% more
Wake Forest: 0.5 vs California: 0.4
Turnovers (L5) +27.0% more
California: 0.9 vs Wake Forest: 0.6
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
WAKE Score 28.2 41
CAL Score 24.2 7
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 21.3 / 22.4 20.0 / 24.0
Rushing Yards 86.6 / 136.7 75.0 / 220.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.5 0.38 / 0.57
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.54 / 0.46
Total Yards 403.8 / 427.9 266.0 / 509.0
Turnovers 0.9 / 0.6 0.0 / 0.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -355 / +274 → -395 / +310 ↓
98%TICKETS2%
94%MONEY6%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -9 / +9 → -10 / +10 ↓
60%TICKETS40%
68%MONEY32%
Total (O/U)
Open: 54.5 → 54.5
63%TICKETS37%
69%MONEY31%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
WAKE Advantage
7-1-0 (87.5%)
Margin: 21.3 ATS +/-: +16.2
CAL
3-6-0 (33.3%)
Margin: -9.7 ATS +/-: -9.5
🎯 ATS (Spread)
WAKE Advantage
5-2-0 (71.4%)
Margin: 18.0 ATS +/-: +14.1
CAL
2-7-0 (22.2%)
Margin: -9.7 ATS +/-: -9.5
⚖️ Over/Under
WAKE
3-4-0
O: 42.9% / U: 57.1% Total +/-: +2.6
CAL
3-6-0
O: 33.3% / U: 66.7% Total +/-: -1.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CAL
WAKE
CAL
WAKE
ML
56% 5-4
75% 6-2
78% 7-2
75% 6-2
ATS
33% 3-6
50% 4-4
56% 5-4
50% 4-4
TTL
56% 5-4
75% 6-2
78% 7-2
50% 4-4
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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