Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Pitt @ Boston College PITT @ BC

PITTSBURGH

PITTPITT

5-2  |  Road

21
FINAL
Sat, Oct 17 • 12:00 PM ET
Alumni Stadium (Chestnut Hill, MA)
View Odds Details →

BOSTON COLLEGE

BOSTON COLLEGEBC

3-3  |  Home

27
Key Game
Gabe Russo
KEY GAME

Gabe Russo

#98 | Punter
@
Bryce LaFollette
KEY GAME

Bryce LaFollette

#96 | Punter
Player
Gabe Russo None-None
Bryce LaFollette None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
PITT
78%
📊
BOSTON COLLEGE
22%
▲ Edge: +9.20% (PITT)
PITT 69% Book Odds: -225
BOSTON COLLEGE 35% Book Odds: +185
Book Implied: 69.20% / 35.10%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
46.0
Projected
Book Total
42.5
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +3.5 (Over)
Over 42.5 58%
Under 42.5 42%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-13.6
PITTSBURGH
Book Spread
-6.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +7.1 points (Pittsburgh)
PittPITT (-6.5) 0 Boston CollegeBC (+6.5)
Pittsburgh Panthers (-6.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Pitt Cover

83.4%

Boston College Cover

16.6%

-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around PITT -13.6 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (PITT)

PITT By 1-6 points

13.1%

PITT By 7-13 points

19.1%

BC By 1-6 points

8.1%

BC By 7-13 points

4.9%

AI Model Projected Score
29.8
PITTSBURGH
Book Implied: 24.50
16.2
BOSTON COLLEGE
Book Implied: 18
Simulated Score
33
PITTSBURGH
Book Implied: 24.50
20
BOSTON COLLEGE
Book Implied: 18
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI Pitt Loss
78% Win Prob
A
Sim Pitt Loss
90% Win Prob
A
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI Pitt (-6.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -13.6
B
Sim Pitt (-6.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -13.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI o42.5 Win
Proj Total: 46.0
B
Sim o42.5 Win
Proj Total: 53.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 17, 2026 PITT @ BC 21 - 27
Oct 4, 2025 BC @ PITT 7 - 48
Nov 30, 2024 PITT @ BC 23 - 34
Nov 16, 2023 BC @ PITT 16 - 24
Oct 10, 2020 PITT @ BC 30 - 31
Key Model Drivers
First Downs (L5) +22.1% more
Pittsburgh: 23.2 vs Boston College: 18.1
Total Yards (L5) +19.0% more
Pittsburgh: 417.9 vs Boston College: 338.7
Third Down Efficiency (L5) +11.0% more
Pittsburgh: 0.4 vs Boston College: 0.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
PITT Score 29.8 21
BC Score 16.2 27
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 18.1 / 23.2 25.0 / 22.0
Rushing Yards 141.0 / 149.3 103.0 / 199.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.3 / 0.4 0.62 / 0.2
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.53 / 0.47
Total Yards 338.7 / 417.9 398.0 / 392.0
Turnovers 1.2 / 1.1 2.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -245 / +200 → -225 / +185 ↑
95%TICKETS5%
79%MONEY21%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -7 / +7 → -6.5 / +6.5 ↑
65%TICKETS35%
61%MONEY39%
Total (O/U)
Open: 46.5 → 42.5 ↓
83%TICKETS17%
72%MONEY28%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
PITT Advantage
5-3-0 (62.5%)
Margin: 10.8 ATS +/-: +1.1
BC
4-3-0 (57.1%)
Margin: 0.9 ATS +/-: +3.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
PITT
4-4-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 10.8 ATS +/-: +1.1
BC Advantage
5-2-0 (71.4%)
Margin: 0.9 ATS +/-: +3.1
⚖️ Over/Under
PITT
4-4-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +1.0
BC
2-5-0
O: 28.6% / U: 71.4% Total +/-: -2.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
BC
PITT
BC
PITT
ML
57% 4-3
75% 6-2
57% 4-3
62% 5-3
ATS
43% 3-4
62% 5-3
57% 4-3
25% 2-6
TTL
43% 3-4
38% 3-5
43% 3-4
75% 6-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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