NORTH CAROLINA
NORTH CAROLINAUNC
4-2 | Road
24
DUKE
DUKEDUKE
4-2 | Home
20
Key Game
KEY GAME
Aeron Burrell
#92 | Place kicker@
KEY GAME
Kade Reynoldson
#41 | Punter| Player | |
|---|---|
| Aeron Burrell | None-None |
| Kade Reynoldson | None-None |
None-None
W-L
None-None
AI Model Win Probability
NORTH CAROLINA
22%
DUKE
78%
▲ Edge: +18.70% (DUKE)
NORTH CAROLINA
44%
Book Odds: +128
DUKE
59%
Book Odds: -145
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
50.0
Projected
Book Total
46.0
Over / Under Line
▲
Edge: +4.0 (Over)
Over 46.0
57%
Under 46.0
43%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-13.0
DUKE
Book Spread
-3
Book Line
▲ Edge: +10.0 points (Duke)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around DUKE -13.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (DUKE)
UNC By 1-6 points
8.6%
UNC By 7-13 points
5.3%
DUKE By 1-6 points
13.5%
DUKE By 7-13 points
19.3%
AI Model Projected Score
North Carolina
18.5
NORTH CAROLINA
Book Implied: 21.50
Duke
31.5
DUKE
Book Implied: 24.50
Simulated Score
North Carolina
19
NORTH CAROLINA
Book Implied: 21.50
Duke
34
DUKE
Book Implied: 24.50
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
👑 Top Selection
AI
Duke
Loss
78% Win Prob
A
Sim
Duke
Loss
93% Win Prob
A
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
👑 Top Selection
AI
Duke (-3)
Loss
Proj Spread: -13.0
A
Sim
Duke (-3)
Loss
Proj Spread: -15.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
AI
o46.0
Loss
Proj Total: 50.0
C
Sim
o46.0
Loss
Proj Total: 53.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Oct 17, 2026
UNC @ DUKE
24 - 20
Nov 22, 2025
DUKE @ UNC
32 - 25
Sep 28, 2024
UNC @ DUKE
20 - 21
Nov 11, 2023
DUKE @ UNC
45 - 47
Oct 15, 2022
UNC @ DUKE
38 - 35
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5)
+134.7% more
Duke: 208.5
vs
North Carolina: 88.9
Total Yards (L5)
+51.7% more
Duke: 460.4
vs
North Carolina: 303.6
First Downs (L5)
+44.4% more
Duke: 24.7
vs
North Carolina: 17.1
Time of Possession (L5)
+14.0% more
Duke: 0.6
vs
North Carolina: 0.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
UNC Score
18.5
24
DUKE Score
31.5
20
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs
24.7 / 17.1
19.0 / 22.0
Rushing Yards
208.5 / 88.9
124.0 / 135.0
Third Down Efficiency
0.5 / 0.4
0.44 / 0.33
Time of Possession
0.6 / 0.4
0.52 / 0.48
Total Yards
460.4 / 303.6
373.0 / 326.0
Turnovers
0.3 / 1.6
1.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +150 / -178
→
+128 / -145
↓
Spread (ATS)
Open: +3.5 / -3.5
→
+3 / -3
↓
Total (O/U)
Open: 47.5
→
46
↓
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
UNC
4-3-0
(57.1%)
Margin: 3.6
ATS +/-: +2.7
DUKE
Advantage
6-2-0
(75.0%)
Margin: 17.8
ATS +/-: +9.2
🎯 ATS (Spread)
UNC
4-3-0
(57.1%)
Margin: 3.6
ATS +/-: +2.7
DUKE
Advantage
6-2-0
(75.0%)
Margin: 17.8
ATS +/-: +9.2
⚖️ Over/Under
UNC
3-4-0
O: 42.9% / U: 57.1%
Total +/-: -2.6
DUKE
3-5-0
O: 37.5% / U: 62.5%
Total +/-: -4.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
DUKE
UNC
DUKE
UNC
ML
71%
5-2
43%
3-4
57%
4-3
57%
4-3
ATS
57%
4-3
43%
3-4
43%
3-4
71%
5-2
TTL
29%
2-5
43%
3-4
29%
2-5
43%
3-4
Contextual Game News
Paul Finebaum's ESPN Contract Status: Analyst Weighs Future as D…
Michigan's Path to Victory Over Rutgers: Three Keys to a Week 9 …
Oklahoma State Goes All-Orange for Halloween Clash with Iowa Sta…
Cal's Unconventional Fix: Oven Mitts to Curb Penalties
Texas-Ole Miss Draws 8.1 Million Viewers as Week 8 TV Ratings St…