LOUISVILLE
LOUISVILLELOU
4-3 | Road
34
SYRACUSE
SYRACUSESYR
2-4 | Home
26
Key Game
👤
KEY GAME
Niall Hayes
#91 | Punter@
KEY GAME
Jimmy Gregg
#41 | Punter| Player | |
|---|---|
| Niall Hayes | None-None |
| Jimmy Gregg | None-None |
None-None
W-L
None-None
AI Model Win Probability
LOUISVILLE
77%
SYRACUSE
23%
▲ Edge: +5.10% (SYR)
LOUISVILLE
86%
Book Odds: -624
SYRACUSE
18%
Book Odds: +466
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
53.4
Projected
Book Total
55.5
Over / Under Line
▼
Edge: +2.1 (Under)
Over 55.5
45%
Under 55.5
55%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+13.0
SYRACUSE
Book Spread
+14.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.5 points (Syracuse)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around SYR +13.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SYR)
LOU By 1-6 points
13.5%
LOU By 7-13 points
19.3%
SYR By 1-6 points
8.6%
SYR By 7-13 points
5.3%
AI Model Projected Score
Louisville
33.2
LOUISVILLE
Book Implied: 35
Syracuse
20.2
SYRACUSE
Book Implied: 20.50
Simulated Score
Louisville
33
LOUISVILLE
Book Implied: 35
Syracuse
23
SYRACUSE
Book Implied: 20.50
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
👑 Top Selection
AI
Louisville
Win
77% Win Prob
A
Sim
Louisville
Win
84% Win Prob
A
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Syracuse (+14.5)
Win
Proj Spread: +13.0
D
Sim
Syracuse (+14.5)
Win
Proj Spread: +10.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI
u55.5
Loss
Proj Total: 53.4
C
Sim
o55.5
Win
Proj Total: 56.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Oct 17, 2026
LOU @ SYR
34 - 26
Sep 3, 2022
LOU @ SYR
7 - 31
Nov 13, 2021
SYR @ LOU
3 - 41
Nov 20, 2020
SYR @ LOU
0 - 30
Nov 23, 2019
SYR @ LOU
34 - 56
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5)
+38.6% more
Louisville: 261.8
vs
Syracuse: 160.7
Total Yards (L5)
+13.4% more
Louisville: 483.3
vs
Syracuse: 418.8
Turnovers (L5)
+36.0% more
Syracuse: 1.3
vs
Louisville: 0.9
First Downs (L5)
+12.8% more
Syracuse: 25.0
vs
Louisville: 22.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
LOU Score
33.2
34
SYR Score
20.2
26
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs
25.0 / 22.2
26.0 / 15.0
Rushing Yards
160.7 / 261.8
123.0 / 115.0
Third Down Efficiency
0.4 / 0.4
0.21 / 0.46
Time of Possession
0.6 / 0.5
0.54 / 0.46
Total Yards
418.8 / 483.3
462.0 / 425.0
Turnovers
1.3 / 0.9
3.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -517 / +371
→
-624 / +466
↓
Spread (ATS)
Open: -13 / +13
→
-14.5 / +14.5
↓
Total (O/U)
Open: 56.5
→
55.5
↓
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
LOU
Advantage
4-3-0
(57.1%)
Margin: 11.3
ATS +/-: +1.1
SYR
4-4-0
(50.0%)
Margin: 5.0
ATS +/-: +6.2
🎯 ATS (Spread)
LOU
4-3-0
(57.1%)
Margin: 11.3
ATS +/-: +1.1
SYR
Advantage
5-3-0
(62.5%)
Margin: 5.0
ATS +/-: +6.2
⚖️ Over/Under
LOU
6-1-0
O: 85.7% / U: 14.3%
Total +/-: +8.9
SYR
5-3-0
O: 62.5% / U: 37.5%
Total +/-: +4.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SYR
LOU
SYR
LOU
ML
71%
5-2
71%
5-2
86%
6-1
86%
6-1
ATS
43%
3-4
71%
5-2
86%
6-1
71%
5-2
TTL
57%
4-3
29%
2-5
71%
5-2
71%
5-2
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