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KANSAS

KANSASKU

2-4  |  Road

24
FINAL
Sat, Oct 17 • 12:00 PM ET
Bill Snyder Family Stadium
View Odds Details →

KANSAS STATE

KANSAS STKSU

4-2  |  Home

35
Key Game
Martin Connington
KEY GAME

Martin Connington

#29 | Place kicker
@
Simon McClannan
KEY GAME

Simon McClannan

#8 | Punter
Player
Martin Connington None-None
Simon McClannan None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
KANSAS
35%
📊
KANSAS ST
65%
▲ Edge: +4.90% (KSU)
KANSAS 45% Book Odds: +124
KANSAS ST 60% Book Odds: -148
Book Implied: 44.60% / 59.70%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
54.5
Projected
Book Total
55.5
Over / Under Line
▼ Edge: +1.0 (Under)
Over 55.5 48%
Under 55.5 52%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-6.5
KANSAS STATE
Book Spread
-3
Book Line
▲ Edge: +3.5 points (Kansas State)
KansasKU (+3) 0 Kansas StKSU (-3)
Kansas State Wildcats (-3) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Kansas Cover

32.1%

Kansas St Cover

67.9%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around KSU -6.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (KSU)

KU By 1-6 points

13.2%

KU By 7-13 points

10.0%

KSU By 1-6 points

16.6%

KSU By 7-13 points

19.1%

AI Model Projected Score
24
KANSAS
Book Implied: 26.20
30.5
KANSAS STATE
Book Implied: 29.20
Simulated Score
25
KANSAS
Book Implied: 26.20
35
KANSAS STATE
Book Implied: 29.20
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI Kansas St Win
65% Win Prob
B
Sim Kansas St Win
84% Win Prob
A
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Kansas St (-3) Win
Proj Spread: -6.5
C
Sim Kansas St (-3) Win
Proj Spread: -10.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI u55.5 Loss
Proj Total: 54.5
D
Sim o55.5 Win
Proj Total: 60.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 17, 2026 KU @ KSU 24 - 35
Oct 25, 2025 KSU @ KU 42 - 17
Oct 26, 2024 KU @ KSU 27 - 29
Nov 18, 2023 KSU @ KU 31 - 27
Nov 26, 2022 KU @ KSU 27 - 47
Key Model Drivers
Third Down Efficiency (L5) +13.0% more
Kansas State: 0.5 vs Kansas: 0.4
Turnovers (L5) +29.6% more
Kansas: 1.4 vs Kansas State: 1.0
Total Yards (L5) +14.5% more
Kansas: 465.1 vs Kansas State: 397.8
Rushing Yards (L5) +10.4% more
Kansas: 204.8 vs Kansas State: 183.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
KU Score 24.0 24
KSU Score 30.5 35
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 21.7 / 24.0 25.0 / 18.0
Rushing Yards 183.5 / 204.8 359.0 / 168.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.5 / 0.4 0.46 / 0.27
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.6 / 0.4
Total Yards 397.8 / 465.1 568.0 / 319.0
Turnovers 1.0 / 1.4 1.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +275 / -345 → +124 / -148 ↓
11%TICKETS89%
59%MONEY41%
Spread (ATS)
Open: +9.5 / -9.5 → +3 / -3 ↓
45%TICKETS55%
59%MONEY41%
Total (O/U)
Open: 55.5 → 55.5
52%TICKETS48%
69%MONEY31%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
KU
3-4-0 (42.9%)
Margin: 7.0 ATS +/-: +1.4
KSU Advantage
4-3-0 (57.1%)
Margin: 11.7 ATS +/-: -1.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
KU
2-5-0 (28.6%)
Margin: 7.0 ATS +/-: +1.4
KSU Advantage
3-4-0 (42.9%)
Margin: 11.7 ATS +/-: -1.4
⚖️ Over/Under
KU
4-3-0
O: 57.1% / U: 42.9% Total +/-: +2.2
KSU
4-3-0
O: 57.1% / U: 42.9% Total +/-: +0.9
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
KSU
KU
KSU
KU
ML
71% 5-2
71% 5-2
86% 6-1
71% 5-2
ATS
71% 5-2
57% 4-3
86% 6-1
14% 1-6
TTL
29% 2-5
71% 5-2
57% 4-3
57% 4-3
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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