Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Cincinnati @ West Virginia CIN @ WVU

CINCINNATI

CINCINNATICIN

4-2  |  Road

42
FINAL
Sat, Oct 17 • 12:00 PM ET
Milan Puskar Stadium
View Odds Details →

WEST VIRGINIA

WEST VIRGINIAWVU

4-3  |  Home

45
Key Game
Max Fletcher
KEY GAME

Max Fletcher

#31 | Punter
@
Bryan Hansen
KEY GAME

Bryan Hansen

#83 | Punter
Player
Max Fletcher None-None
Bryan Hansen None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
CINCINNATI
66%
📊
WEST VIRGINIA
34%
▲ Edge: +16.60% (CIN)
CINCINNATI 50% Book Odds: +102
WEST VIRGINIA 54% Book Odds: -115
Book Implied: 49.50% / 53.50%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
55.0
Projected
Book Total
64.5
Over / Under Line
▼ Edge: +9.5 (Under)
Over 64.5 33%
Under 64.5 67%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-7.0
CINCINNATI
Book Spread
+1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +8.5 points (Cincinnati)
CincinnatiCIN (+1.5) 0 West VirginiaWVU (-1.5)
Cincinnati Bearcats (+1.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Cincinnati Cover

69.1%

West Virginia Cover

30.9%

-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around CIN -7.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CIN)

CIN By 1-6 points

16.5%

CIN By 7-13 points

19.3%

WVU By 1-6 points

12.9%

WVU By 7-13 points

9.6%

AI Model Projected Score
31
CINCINNATI
Book Implied: 31.50
24
WEST VIRGINIA
Book Implied: 33
Simulated Score
33
CINCINNATI
Book Implied: 31.50
26
WEST VIRGINIA
Book Implied: 33
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI Cincinnati Loss
66% Win Prob
B
Sim Cincinnati Loss
75% Win Prob
A
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI Cincinnati (+1.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -7.0
A
Sim Cincinnati (+1.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -7.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI u64.5 Loss
Proj Total: 55.0
A
Sim u64.5 Loss
Proj Total: 59.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 17, 2026 CIN @ WVU 42 - 45
Nov 9, 2024 WVU @ CIN 31 - 24
Nov 18, 2023 CIN @ WVU 21 - 42
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +92.0% more
West Virginia: 1.5 vs Cincinnati: 0.6
Rushing Yards (L5) +52.8% more
West Virginia: 281.8 vs Cincinnati: 184.5
First Downs (L5) +35.6% more
West Virginia: 24.3 vs Cincinnati: 17.9
Total Yards (L5) +26.7% more
West Virginia: 481.4 vs Cincinnati: 379.8
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
CIN Score 31.0 42
WVU Score 24.0 45
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 24.3 / 17.9 27.0 / 28.0
Rushing Yards 281.8 / 184.5 134.0 / 233.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.5 / 0.5 0.46 / 0.54
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.47 / 0.53
Total Yards 481.4 / 379.8 598.0 / 622.0
Turnovers 1.5 / 0.6 0.0 / 0.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +100 / -120 → +102 / -115 ↓
26%TICKETS74%
6%MONEY94%
Spread (ATS)
Open: +1.5 / -1.5 → +1.5 / -1.5
44%TICKETS56%
48%MONEY52%
Total (O/U)
Open: 61.5 → 64.5 ↑
37%TICKETS63%
56%MONEY44%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CIN
5-3-0 (62.5%)
Margin: 4.9 ATS +/-: +1.6
WVU
5-3-0 (62.5%)
Margin: 3.6 ATS +/-: -1.2
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CIN
4-4-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 4.9 ATS +/-: +1.6
WVU Advantage
4-3-1 (57.1%)
Margin: 3.6 ATS +/-: -1.2
⚖️ Over/Under
CIN
5-2-0
O: 71.4% / U: 28.6% Total +/-: +5.2
WVU
7-1-0
O: 87.5% / U: 12.5% Total +/-: +10.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
WVU
CIN
WVU
CIN
ML
50% 4-4
57% 4-3
38% 3-5
75% 6-2
ATS
29% 2-5-1
43% 3-4
29% 2-5-1
62% 5-3
TTL
43% 3-4-1
29% 2-5
0% 0-7-1
50% 4-4
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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