Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Arkansas @ Vanderbilt ARK @ VAN

ARKANSAS

ARKANSASARK

3-4  |  Road

31
FINAL
Sat, Oct 17 • 7:00 PM ET
FirstBank Stadium
View Odds Details →

VANDERBILT

VANDERBILTVAN

3-4  |  Home

21
Key Game
Jesse Ehrlich
KEY GAME

Jesse Ehrlich

#34 | Punter
@
Tyler Ebel
KEY GAME

Tyler Ebel

#37 | Punter
Player
Jesse Ehrlich None-None
Tyler Ebel None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
ARKANSAS
13%
📊
VANDERBILT
87%
▲ Edge: +18.70% (VAN)
ARKANSAS 35% Book Odds: +185
VANDERBILT 68% Book Odds: -214
Book Implied: 35.10% / 68.20%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
54.4
Projected
Book Total
48.5
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +5.9 (Over)
Over 48.5 64%
Under 48.5 36%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-20.0
VANDERBILT
Book Spread
-5.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +14.5 points (Vanderbilt)
ArkansasARK (+5.5) 0 VanderbiltVAN (-5.5)
Vanderbilt Commodores (-5.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Arkansas Cover

7.7%

Vanderbilt Cover

92.3%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around VAN -20.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (VAN)

ARK By 1-6 points

4.2%

ARK By 7-13 points

2.1%

VAN By 1-6 points

8.6%

VAN By 7-13 points

15.4%

AI Model Projected Score
17.2
ARKANSAS
Book Implied: 21.50
37.2
VANDERBILT
Book Implied: 27
Simulated Score
25
ARKANSAS
Book Implied: 21.50
30
VANDERBILT
Book Implied: 27
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI Vanderbilt Loss
87% Win Prob
A
Sim Vanderbilt Loss
68% Win Prob
A
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Vanderbilt (-5.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -20.0
A
Sim Arkansas (+5.5) Win
Proj Spread: +5.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI o48.5 Win
Proj Total: 54.4
B
Sim o48.5 Win
Proj Total: 55.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 17, 2026 ARK @ VAN 31 - 21
Oct 27, 2018 VAN @ ARK 45 - 31
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +91.1% more
Vanderbilt: 2.1 vs Arkansas: 1.1
Total Yards (L5) +12.9% more
Vanderbilt: 349.9 vs Arkansas: 309.8
Third Down Efficiency (L5) +11.0% more
Vanderbilt: 0.4 vs Arkansas: 0.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
ARK Score 17.2 31
VAN Score 37.2 21
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 18.7 / 17.9 20.0 / 24.0
Rushing Yards 114.0 / 111.8 116.0 / 187.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.3 0.45 / 0.5
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.44 / 0.56
Total Yards 349.9 / 309.8 390.0 / 438.0
Turnovers 2.1 / 1.1 2.0 / 0.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +194 / -237 → +185 / -214 ↓
10%TICKETS90%
88%MONEY12%
Spread (ATS)
Open: +6.5 / -6.5 → +5.5 / -5.5 ↓
52%TICKETS48%
43%MONEY57%
Total (O/U)
Open: 50.5 → 48.5 ↓
64%TICKETS36%
57%MONEY43%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ARK Advantage
3-4-0 (42.9%)
Margin: -5.7 ATS +/-: -2.7
VAN
3-5-0 (37.5%)
Margin: -7.5 ATS +/-: -7.9
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ARK Advantage
3-4-0 (42.9%)
Margin: -5.7 ATS +/-: -2.7
VAN
3-5-0 (37.5%)
Margin: -7.5 ATS +/-: -7.9
⚖️ Over/Under
ARK
2-5-0
O: 28.6% / U: 71.4% Total +/-: -5.9
VAN
5-3-0
O: 62.5% / U: 37.5% Total +/-: +0.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
VAN
ARK
VAN
ARK
ML
75% 6-2
86% 6-1
62% 5-3
71% 5-2
ATS
50% 4-4
57% 4-3
88% 7-1
57% 4-3
TTL
75% 6-2
43% 3-4
75% 6-2
29% 2-5
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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