Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Wisconsin @ UCLA WIS @ UCLA

WISCONSIN

WISCONSINWIS

4-2  |  Road

7
FINAL
Sat, Oct 17 • 7:30 PM ET
Rose Bowl
View Odds Details →

UCLA

UCLAUCLA

6-0  |  Home

17
Key Game
Gavin Lahm
KEY GAME

Gavin Lahm

#97 | Place kicker
@
Curtis Gerrand
KEY GAME

Curtis Gerrand

#35 | Punter
Player
Gavin Lahm None-None
Curtis Gerrand None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
WISCONSIN
47%
📊
UCLA
53%
WISCONSIN 49% Book Odds: +103
UCLA 54% Book Odds: -115
Book Implied: 49.30% / 53.50%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
55.0
Projected
Book Total
43.0
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +12.0 (Over)
Over 43.0 74%
Under 43.0 26%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+1.4
WISCONSIN
Book Spread
+1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.1 points (Wisconsin)
WisconsinWIS (+1.5) 0 UCLAUCLA (-1.5)
Wisconsin Badgers (+1.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Wisconsin Cover

54.0%

UCLA Cover

46.0%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around WIS +1.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (WIS)

WIS By 1-6 points

16.0%

WIS By 7-13 points

14.3%

UCLA By 1-6 points

16.8%

UCLA By 7-13 points

16.4%

AI Model Projected Score
26.8
WISCONSIN
Book Implied: 20.80
28.2
UCLA
Book Implied: 22.20
Simulated Score
15
WISCONSIN
Book Implied: 20.80
33
UCLA
Book Implied: 22.20
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI UCLA Win
53% Win Prob
D
Sim UCLA Win
96% Win Prob
A
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Wisconsin (+1.5) Loss
Proj Spread: +1.4
D
Sim UCLA (-1.5) Win
Proj Spread: -18.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI o43.0 Loss
Proj Total: 55.0
A
Sim o43.0 Loss
Proj Total: 48.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 17, 2026 WIS @ UCLA 7 - 17
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +51.3% more
UCLA: 1.7 vs Wisconsin: 1.2
Rushing Yards (L5) +30.8% more
UCLA: 213.7 vs Wisconsin: 163.4
First Downs (L5) +17.9% more
UCLA: 20.3 vs Wisconsin: 17.2
Total Yards (L5) +14.9% more
UCLA: 419.5 vs Wisconsin: 365.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
WIS Score 26.8 7
UCLA Score 28.2 17
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 20.3 / 17.2 20.0 / 13.0
Rushing Yards 213.7 / 163.4 120.0 / 148.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.4 0.65 / 0.3
Time of Possession 0.6 / 0.5 0.62 / 0.38
Total Yards 419.5 / 365.0 384.0 / 214.0
Turnovers 1.7 / 1.2 2.0 / 0.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +130 / -153 → +103 / -115 ↓
18%TICKETS82%
39%MONEY61%
Spread (ATS)
Open: +3 / -3 → +1.5 / -1.5 ↓
40%TICKETS60%
55%MONEY45%
Total (O/U)
Open: 46.5 → 43 ↓
82%TICKETS18%
76%MONEY24%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
WIS
5-3-0 (62.5%)
Margin: 6.5 ATS +/-: +1.8
UCLA Advantage
8-0-0 (100.0%)
Margin: 20.1 ATS +/-: +12.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
WIS
4-4-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 6.5 ATS +/-: +1.8
UCLA Advantage
8-0-0 (100.0%)
Margin: 20.1 ATS +/-: +12.3
⚖️ Over/Under
WIS
3-5-0
O: 37.5% / U: 62.5% Total +/-: -4.3
UCLA
3-4-0
O: 42.9% / U: 57.1% Total +/-: -1.9
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
UCLA
WIS
UCLA
WIS
ML
62% 5-3
75% 6-2
62% 5-3
50% 4-4
ATS
43% 3-4-1
38% 3-5
14% 1-6-1
50% 4-4
TTL
25% 2-6
38% 3-5
25% 2-6
62% 5-3
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
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