Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Virginia @ SMU UVA @ SMU

VIRGINIA

VIRGINIAUVA

4-3  |  Road

13
FINAL
Sat, Oct 17 • 12:00 PM ET
Gerald J. Ford Stadium
View Odds Details →

SMU

SMUSMU

5-1  |  Home

23
Key Game
Will Bettridge
KEY GAME

Will Bettridge

#41 | Place kicker
@
Wade McSparron
KEY GAME

Wade McSparron

#43 | Punter
Player
Will Bettridge None-None
Wade McSparron None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
VIRGINIA
46%
📊
SMU
54%
▲ Edge: +19.50% (UVA)
VIRGINIA 26% Book Odds: +285
SMU 78% Book Odds: -360
Book Implied: 26% / 78.30%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
55.0
Projected
Book Total
51.5
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +3.5 (Over)
Over 51.5 58%
Under 51.5 42%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+2.0
VIRGINIA
Book Spread
+10
Book Line
▲ Edge: +8.0 points (Virginia)
VirginiaUVA (+10) 0 SMUSMU (-10)
Virginia Cavaliers (+10) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Virginia Cover

55.7%

SMU Cover

44.3%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around UVA +2.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (UVA)

UVA By 1-6 points

15.7%

UVA By 7-13 points

13.8%

SMU By 1-6 points

16.9%

SMU By 7-13 points

16.8%

AI Model Projected Score
26.5
VIRGINIA
Book Implied: 20.80
28.5
SMU
Book Implied: 30.80
Simulated Score
30
VIRGINIA
Book Implied: 20.80
34
SMU
Book Implied: 30.80
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI SMU Win
54% Win Prob
D
Sim SMU Win
65% Win Prob
B
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI Virginia (+10) Push
Proj Spread: +2.0
B
Sim Virginia (+10) Push
Proj Spread: +4.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
AI o51.5 Loss
Proj Total: 55.0
C
Sim o51.5 Loss
Proj Total: 64.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 17, 2026 UVA @ SMU 13 - 23
Nov 23, 2024 SMU @ UVA 33 - 7
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +98.0% more
SMU: 1.4 vs Virginia: 0.4
Total Yards (L5) +27.8% more
SMU: 430.6 vs Virginia: 337.0
Third Down Efficiency (L5) +18.0% more
SMU: 0.5 vs Virginia: 0.4
First Downs (L5) +10.4% more
SMU: 23.7 vs Virginia: 21.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
UVA Score 26.5 13
SMU Score 28.5 23
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 23.7 / 21.4 23.0 / 13.0
Rushing Yards 127.5 / 132.6 158.0 / 121.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.5 / 0.4 0.31 / 0.31
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.52 / 0.48
Total Yards 430.6 / 337.0 404.0 / 258.0
Turnovers 1.4 / 0.4 0.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +250 / -310 → +285 / -360 ↑
3%TICKETS97%
3%MONEY97%
Spread (ATS)
Open: +7.5 / -7.5 → +10 / -10 ↑
52%TICKETS48%
31%MONEY69%
Total (O/U)
Open: 53.5 → 51.5 ↓
66%TICKETS34%
68%MONEY32%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
UVA
4-4-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 8.6 ATS +/-: -2.6
SMU Advantage
6-1-0 (85.7%)
Margin: 15.3 ATS +/-: -0.7
🎯 ATS (Spread)
UVA Advantage
3-4-1 (42.9%)
Margin: 8.6 ATS +/-: -2.6
SMU
2-3-2 (40.0%)
Margin: 15.3 ATS +/-: -0.7
⚖️ Over/Under
UVA
3-5-0
O: 37.5% / U: 62.5% Total +/-: -3.5
SMU
3-4-0
O: 42.9% / U: 57.1% Total +/-: +1.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SMU
UVA
SMU
UVA
ML
100% 7-0
75% 6-2
100% 7-0
75% 6-2
ATS
50% 3-3-1
43% 3-4-1
67% 4-2-1
43% 3-4-1
TTL
43% 3-4
50% 4-4
57% 4-3
12% 1-7
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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