Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Oklahoma St @ Houston OKST @ HOU

OKLAHOMA STATE

OKLAHOMA STOKST

4-2  |  Road

32
FINAL
Sat, Oct 17 • 7:30 PM ET
TDECU Stadium
View Odds Details →

HOUSTON

HOUSTONHOU

6-1  |  Home

35
Key Game
Lachie Pozzobon
KEY GAME

Lachie Pozzobon

#37 | Punter
@
Liam Dougherty
KEY GAME

Liam Dougherty

#91 | Punter
Player
Lachie Pozzobon None-None
Liam Dougherty None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
OKLAHOMA ST
12%
📊
HOUSTON
88%
▲ Edge: +22.60% (HOU)
OKLAHOMA ST 39% Book Odds: +154
HOUSTON 65% Book Odds: -185
Book Implied: 39.40% / 64.90%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
61.0
Projected
Book Total
61.5
Over / Under Line
▼ Edge: +0.5 (Under)
Over 61.5 48%
Under 61.5 52%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-20.6
HOUSTON
Book Spread
-4
Book Line
▲ Edge: +16.6 points (Houston)
Oklahoma StOKST (+4) 0 HoustonHOU (-4)
Houston Cougars (-4) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Oklahoma St Cover

7.1%

Houston Cover

92.9%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around HOU -20.6 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (HOU)

OKST By 1-6 points

3.9%

OKST By 7-13 points

1.9%

HOU By 1-6 points

8.1%

HOU By 7-13 points

14.9%

AI Model Projected Score
20.2
OKLAHOMA STATE
Book Implied: 28.80
40.8
HOUSTON
Book Implied: 32.80
Simulated Score
21
OKLAHOMA STATE
Book Implied: 28.80
38
HOUSTON
Book Implied: 32.80
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI Houston Win
88% Win Prob
A
Sim Houston Win
95% Win Prob
A
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI Houston (-4) Loss
Proj Spread: -20.6
A
Sim Houston (-4) Loss
Proj Spread: -17.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
AI u61.5 Loss
Proj Total: 61.0
D
Sim u61.5 Loss
Proj Total: 59.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 17, 2026 OKST @ HOU 32 - 35
Oct 11, 2025 HOU @ OKST 39 - 17
Nov 18, 2023 OKST @ HOU 43 - 30
Key Model Drivers
Third Down Efficiency (L5) +23.0% more
Houston: 0.6 vs Oklahoma State: 0.4
Rushing Yards (L5) +22.5% more
Houston: 212.2 vs Oklahoma State: 173.3
First Downs (L5) +9.7% more
Houston: 26.2 vs Oklahoma State: 23.9
Turnovers (L5) +64.8% more
Oklahoma State: 1.4 vs Houston: 0.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
OKST Score 20.2 32
HOU Score 40.8 35
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 26.2 / 23.9 26.0 / 25.0
Rushing Yards 212.2 / 173.3 162.0 / 134.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.6 / 0.4 0.54 / 0.38
Time of Possession 0.6 / 0.5 0.59 / 0.41
Total Yards 455.1 / 485.4 505.0 / 499.0
Turnovers 0.5 / 1.4 1.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +167 / -200 → +154 / -185 ↓
41%TICKETS59%
57%MONEY43%
Spread (ATS)
Open: +4.5 / -4.5 → +4 / -4 ↓
76%TICKETS24%
73%MONEY27%
Total (O/U)
Open: 58.5 → 61.5 ↑
50%TICKETS50%
68%MONEY32%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
OKST
5-3-0 (62.5%)
Margin: 14.0 ATS +/-: +5.1
HOU Advantage
6-2-0 (75.0%)
Margin: 15.0 ATS +/-: +4.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
OKST Advantage
6-2-0 (75.0%)
Margin: 14.0 ATS +/-: +5.1
HOU
3-5-0 (37.5%)
Margin: 15.0 ATS +/-: +4.1
⚖️ Over/Under
OKST
6-2-0
O: 75.0% / U: 25.0% Total +/-: +9.3
HOU
5-3-0
O: 62.5% / U: 37.5% Total +/-: +1.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
HOU
OKST
HOU
OKST
ML
100% 8-0
50% 4-4
75% 6-2
75% 6-2
ATS
50% 4-4
38% 3-5
50% 4-4
50% 4-4
TTL
62% 5-3
25% 2-6
50% 4-4
38% 3-5
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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