Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Utah @ Colorado UTAH @ COLO

UTAH

UTAHUTAH

6-0  |  Road

27
FINAL
Sat, Oct 17 • 10:15 PM ET
Folsom Field
View Odds Details →

COLORADO

COLORADOCOLO

2-4  |  Home

24
Key Game
Orion Phillips
KEY GAME

Orion Phillips

#92 | Punter
@
Damon Greaves
KEY GAME

Damon Greaves

#35 | Punter
Player
Orion Phillips None-None
Damon Greaves None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
UTAH
85%
📊
COLORADO
15%
UTAH 89% Book Odds: -774
COLORADO 15% Book Odds: +555
Book Implied: 88.60% / 15.30%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
47.5
Projected
Book Total
49.5
Over / Under Line
▼ Edge: +2.0 (Under)
Over 49.5 46%
Under 49.5 54%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-18.5
UTAH
Book Spread
-15.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +3.0 points (Utah)
UtahUTAH (-15.5) 0 ColoradoCOLO (+15.5)
Utah Utes (-15.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Utah Cover

90.7%

Colorado Cover

9.3%

-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around UTAH -18.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (UTAH)

UTAH By 1-6 points

9.6%

UTAH By 7-13 points

16.5%

COLO By 1-6 points

5.0%

COLO By 7-13 points

2.6%

AI Model Projected Score
33
UTAH
Book Implied: 32.50
14.5
COLORADO
Book Implied: 17
Simulated Score
35
UTAH
Book Implied: 32.50
22
COLORADO
Book Implied: 17
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI Utah Win
85% Win Prob
A
Sim Utah Win
90% Win Prob
A
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Utah (-15.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -18.5
C
Sim Colorado (+15.5) Win
Proj Spread: +13.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI u49.5 Loss
Proj Total: 47.5
D
Sim o49.5 Win
Proj Total: 57.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 17, 2026 UTAH @ COLO 27 - 24
Oct 25, 2025 COLO @ UTAH 7 - 53
Nov 16, 2024 UTAH @ COLO 24 - 49
Nov 25, 2023 COLO @ UTAH 17 - 23
Nov 26, 2022 UTAH @ COLO 63 - 21
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5) +52.1% more
Utah: 244.0 vs Colorado: 116.9
Total Yards (L5) +24.1% more
Utah: 495.1 vs Colorado: 375.8
First Downs (L5) +19.2% more
Utah: 26.3 vs Colorado: 21.2
Third Down Efficiency (L5) +18.0% more
Utah: 0.5 vs Colorado: 0.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
UTAH Score 33.0 27
COLO Score 14.5 24
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 21.2 / 26.3 18.0 / 26.0
Rushing Yards 116.9 / 244.0 138.0 / 131.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.3 / 0.5 0.4 / 0.47
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.6 0.37 / 0.63
Total Yards 375.8 / 495.1 394.0 / 409.0
Turnovers 2.5 / 1.0 2.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -855 / +541 → -774 / +555
99%TICKETS1%
96%MONEY4%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -16.5 / +16.5 → -15.5 / +15.5 ↑
81%TICKETS19%
68%MONEY32%
Total (O/U)
Open: 49 → 49.5 ↑
73%TICKETS27%
70%MONEY30%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
UTAH Advantage
7-0-0 (100.0%)
Margin: 22.9 ATS +/-: +5.5
COLO
3-5-0 (37.5%)
Margin: -8.4 ATS +/-: -6.2
🎯 ATS (Spread)
UTAH Advantage
6-1-0 (85.7%)
Margin: 22.9 ATS +/-: +5.5
COLO
2-5-1 (28.6%)
Margin: -8.4 ATS +/-: -6.2
⚖️ Over/Under
UTAH
4-3-0
O: 57.1% / U: 42.9% Total +/-: -1.5
COLO
5-3-0
O: 62.5% / U: 37.5% Total +/-: -1.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
COLO
UTAH
COLO
UTAH
ML
86% 6-1
100% 7-0
86% 6-1
86% 6-1
ATS
43% 3-4
57% 4-3
71% 5-2
29% 2-5
TTL
43% 3-4
71% 5-2
14% 1-6
43% 3-4
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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