Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Arizona St @ Texas Tech ASU @ TTU

ARIZONA STATE

ARIZONA STASU

3-3  |  Road

25
FINAL
Sat, Oct 17 • 3:30 PM ET
Galaxy Stadium
View Odds Details →

TEXAS TECH

TEXAS TECHTTU

6-0  |  Home

53
Key Game
Nick McLarty
KEY GAME

Nick McLarty

#35 | Punter
@
Will Karoll
KEY GAME

Will Karoll

#49 | Punter
Player
Nick McLarty None-None
Will Karoll None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
ARIZONA ST
15%
📊
TEXAS TECH
85%
ARIZONA ST 15% Book Odds: +550
TEXAS TECH 89% Book Odds: -800
Book Implied: 15.40% / 88.90%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
59.0
Projected
Book Total
49.5
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +9.5 (Over)
Over 49.5 71%
Under 49.5 29%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-18.6
TEXAS TECH
Book Spread
-16.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.1 points (Texas Tech)
Arizona StASU (+16.5) 0 Texas TechTTU (-16.5)
Texas Tech Red Raiders (-16.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Arizona St Cover

9.2%

Texas Tech Cover

90.8%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around TTU -18.6 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TTU)

ASU By 1-6 points

5.0%

ASU By 7-13 points

2.6%

TTU By 1-6 points

9.6%

TTU By 7-13 points

16.4%

AI Model Projected Score
20.2
ARIZONA STATE
Book Implied: 16.50
38.8
TEXAS TECH
Book Implied: 33
Simulated Score
26
ARIZONA STATE
Book Implied: 16.50
37
TEXAS TECH
Book Implied: 33
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI Texas Tech Win
85% Win Prob
A
Sim Texas Tech Win
86% Win Prob
A
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Texas Tech (-16.5) Win
Proj Spread: -18.6
C
Sim Arizona St (+16.5) Loss
Proj Spread: +11.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI o49.5 Win
Proj Total: 59.0
A
Sim o49.5 Win
Proj Total: 63.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 17, 2026 ASU @ TTU 25 - 53
Oct 18, 2025 TTU @ ASU 22 - 26
Sep 21, 2024 ASU @ TTU 22 - 30
Sep 16, 2017 ASU @ TTU 45 - 52
Sep 10, 2016 TTU @ ASU 55 - 68
Key Model Drivers
Third Down Efficiency (L5) +11.0% more
Texas Tech: 0.4 vs Arizona State: 0.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
ASU Score 20.2 25
TTU Score 38.8 53
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 21.9 / 20.4 21.0 / 21.0
Rushing Yards 183.5 / 172.1 260.0 / 35.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.3 0.36 / 0.36
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.46 / 0.54
Total Yards 397.4 / 401.1 502.0 / 415.0
Turnovers 1.6 / 1.5 1.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +433 / -632 → +550 / -800 ↑
1%TICKETS99%
3%MONEY97%
Spread (ATS)
Open: +14 / -14 → +16.5 / -16.5 ↑
44%TICKETS56%
45%MONEY55%
Total (O/U)
Open: 48.5 → 49.5 ↑
68%TICKETS32%
87%MONEY13%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ASU
4-3-0 (57.1%)
Margin: 1.0 ATS +/-: -4.8
TTU Advantage
7-1-0 (87.5%)
Margin: 14.5 ATS +/-: -5.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ASU
3-4-0 (42.9%)
Margin: 1.0 ATS +/-: -4.8
TTU Advantage
4-4-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 14.5 ATS +/-: -5.0
⚖️ Over/Under
ASU
4-3-0
O: 57.1% / U: 42.9% Total +/-: +9.5
TTU
6-2-0
O: 75.0% / U: 25.0% Total +/-: +2.1
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TTU
ASU
TTU
ASU
ML
86% 6-1
57% 4-3
100% 7-0
71% 5-2
ATS
71% 5-2
29% 2-5
43% 3-4
29% 2-5
TTL
71% 5-2
57% 4-3
57% 4-3
43% 3-4
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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