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MISSISSIPPI STATE

MISSISSIPPI STMSST

4-2  |  Road

0
FINAL
Sat, Oct 17 • 12:00 PM ET
Tiger Stadium (LA)
View Odds Details →

LSU

LSULSU

5-2  |  Home

31
Key Game
Ethan Pulliam
KEY GAME

Ethan Pulliam

#8 | Punter
@
Grant Chadwick
KEY GAME

Grant Chadwick

#90 | Punter
Player
Ethan Pulliam None-None
Grant Chadwick None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
MISSISSIPPI ST
34%
📊
LSU
66%
▲ Edge: +20.10% (MSST)
MISSISSIPPI ST 14% Book Odds: +625
LSU 91% Book Odds: -952
Book Implied: 13.80% / 90.50%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
57.4
Projected
Book Total
55.5
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +1.9 (Over)
Over 55.5 54%
Under 55.5 46%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+7.0
MISSISSIPPI STATE
Book Spread
+17.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +10.5 points (Mississippi State)
Mississippi StMSST (+17.5) 0 LSULSU (-17.5)
Mississippi State Bulldogs (+17.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Mississippi St Cover

69.1%

LSU Cover

30.9%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around MSST +7.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MSST)

MSST By 1-6 points

12.9%

MSST By 7-13 points

9.6%

LSU By 1-6 points

16.5%

LSU By 7-13 points

19.3%

AI Model Projected Score
25.2
MISSISSIPPI STATE
Book Implied: 19
32.2
LSU
Book Implied: 36.50
Simulated Score
31
MISSISSIPPI STATE
Book Implied: 19
35
LSU
Book Implied: 36.50
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI LSU Win
66% Win Prob
B
Sim LSU Win
65% Win Prob
B
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI Mississippi St (+17.5) Loss
Proj Spread: +7.0
A
Sim Mississippi St (+17.5) Loss
Proj Spread: +4.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
AI o55.5 Loss
Proj Total: 57.4
C
Sim o55.5 Loss
Proj Total: 66.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 17, 2026 MSST @ LSU 0 - 31
Sep 16, 2023 LSU @ MSST 41 - 14
Sep 17, 2022 MSST @ LSU 16 - 31
Sep 25, 2021 LSU @ MSST 28 - 25
Sep 26, 2020 MSST @ LSU 44 - 34
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5) +46.2% more
LSU: 190.2 vs Mississippi State: 130.1
Total Yards (L5) +16.7% more
LSU: 496.5 vs Mississippi State: 425.6
First Downs (L5) +11.8% more
LSU: 27.0 vs Mississippi State: 24.1
Time of Possession (L5) +10.0% more
LSU: 0.6 vs Mississippi State: 0.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
MSST Score 25.2 0
LSU Score 32.2 31
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 27.0 / 24.1 28.0 / 18.0
Rushing Yards 190.2 / 130.1 90.0 / 170.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.5 / 0.5 0.62 / 0.47
Time of Possession 0.6 / 0.5 0.5 / 0.5
Total Yards 496.5 / 425.6 379.0 / 291.0
Turnovers 1.5 / 1.9 1.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +350 / -455 → +625 / -952 ↑
10%TICKETS90%
44%MONEY56%
Spread (ATS)
Open: +12.5 / -12.5 → +17.5 / -17.5 ↑
73%TICKETS27%
62%MONEY38%
Total (O/U)
Open: 59.5 → 55.5 ↓
58%TICKETS42%
53%MONEY47%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MSST
4-3-0 (57.1%)
Margin: 2.3 ATS +/-: +1.5
LSU Advantage
5-2-0 (71.4%)
Margin: 24.6 ATS +/-: +4.9
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MSST Advantage
4-3-0 (57.1%)
Margin: 2.3 ATS +/-: +1.5
LSU
3-4-0 (42.9%)
Margin: 24.6 ATS +/-: +4.9
⚖️ Over/Under
MSST
3-4-0
O: 42.9% / U: 57.1% Total +/-: +1.4
LSU
4-3-0
O: 57.1% / U: 42.9% Total +/-: +1.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
LSU
MSST
LSU
MSST
ML
75% 6-2
57% 4-3
88% 7-1
71% 5-2
ATS
50% 4-4
29% 2-5
62% 5-3
43% 3-4
TTL
50% 4-4
29% 2-5
12% 1-7
0% 0-7
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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