Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Missouri @ Ole Miss MIZ @ MISS

MISSOURI

MISSOURIMIZ

5-2  |  Road

3
FINAL
Sat, Oct 17 • 3:30 PM ET
Vaught-Hemingway Stadium
View Odds Details →

OLE MISS

OLE MISSMISS

5-1  |  Home

31
Key Game
Brunno Reus
KEY GAME

Brunno Reus

#40 | Place kicker
@
Oscar Bird
KEY GAME

Oscar Bird

#33 | Punter
Player
Brunno Reus None-None
Oscar Bird None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
MISSOURI
25%
📊
OLE MISS
75%
▲ Edge: +10% (MISS)
MISSOURI 39% Book Odds: +154
OLE MISS 65% Book Odds: -185
Book Implied: 39.40% / 64.90%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
58.5
Projected
Book Total
57.5
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 (Over)
Over 57.5 50%
Under 57.5 50%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-11.5
OLE MISS
Book Spread
-4
Book Line
▲ Edge: +7.5 points (Ole Miss)
MissouriMIZ (+4) 0 Ole MissMISS (-4)
Ole Miss Rebels (-4) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Missouri Cover

20.6%

Ole Miss Cover

79.4%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around MISS -11.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MISS)

MIZ By 1-6 points

9.6%

MIZ By 7-13 points

6.2%

MISS By 1-6 points

14.4%

MISS By 7-13 points

19.6%

AI Model Projected Score
23.5
MISSOURI
Book Implied: 26.80
35
OLE MISS
Book Implied: 30.80
Simulated Score
29
MISSOURI
Book Implied: 26.80
35
OLE MISS
Book Implied: 30.80
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI Ole Miss Win
75% Win Prob
A
Sim Ole Miss Win
72% Win Prob
A
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Ole Miss (-4) Win
Proj Spread: -11.5
A
Sim Ole Miss (-4) Win
Proj Spread: -6.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
AI o57.5 Loss
Proj Total: 58.5
D
Sim o57.5 Loss
Proj Total: 64.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 17, 2026 MIZ @ MISS 3 - 31
Oct 12, 2019 MISS @ MIZ 27 - 38
Nov 23, 2013 MIZ @ MISS 24 - 10
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +67.0% more
Ole Miss: 1.2 vs Missouri: 0.6
First Downs (L5) +14.1% more
Ole Miss: 24.2 vs Missouri: 21.2
Rushing Yards (L5) +27.0% more
Missouri: 202.9 vs Ole Miss: 148.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
MIZ Score 23.5 3
MISS Score 35.0 31
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 24.2 / 21.2 27.0 / 17.0
Rushing Yards 148.0 / 202.9 257.0 / 39.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.4 0.64 / 0.35
Time of Possession 0.4 / 0.5 0.52 / 0.48
Total Yards 434.1 / 425.4 498.0 / 378.0
Turnovers 1.2 / 0.6 1.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +185 / -219 → +154 / -185 ↓
13%TICKETS87%
29%MONEY71%
Spread (ATS)
Open: +6 / -6 → +4 / -4 ↓
52%TICKETS48%
40%MONEY60%
Total (O/U)
Open: 58.5 → 57.5 ↓
59%TICKETS41%
65%MONEY35%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MIZ
6-2-0 (75.0%)
Margin: 13.1 ATS +/-: +2.1
MISS Advantage
5-1-0 (83.3%)
Margin: 13.7 ATS +/-: +4.2
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MIZ
4-4-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 13.1 ATS +/-: +2.1
MISS
3-3-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 13.7 ATS +/-: +4.2
⚖️ Over/Under
MIZ
3-5-0
O: 37.5% / U: 62.5% Total +/-: -4.5
MISS
3-3-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +4.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MISS
MIZ
MISS
MIZ
ML
75% 6-2
75% 6-2
88% 7-1
75% 6-2
ATS
50% 4-4
38% 3-5
50% 4-4
50% 4-4
TTL
25% 2-6
12% 1-7
62% 5-3
25% 2-6
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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