ALABAMA
ALABAMAALA
5-2 | Road
10
TENNESSEE
TENNESSEETENN
6-1 | Home
26
Key Game
KEY GAME
Alex Asparuhov
#32 | Punter@
KEY GAME
Jackson Ross
#98 | Punter| Player | |
|---|---|
| Alex Asparuhov | None-None |
| Jackson Ross | None-None |
None-None
W-L
None-None
AI Model Win Probability
ALABAMA
57%
TENNESSEE
43%
▲ Edge: +15.20% (TENN)
ALABAMA
76%
Book Odds: -313
TENNESSEE
28%
Book Odds: +261
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
56.6
Projected
Book Total
51.0
Over / Under Line
▲
Edge: +5.6 (Over)
Over 51.0
62%
Under 51.0
38%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+3.0
TENNESSEE
Book Spread
+7.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +4.5 points (Tennessee)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around TENN +3.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TENN)
ALA By 1-6 points
17.0%
ALA By 7-13 points
17.5%
TENN By 1-6 points
15.3%
TENN By 7-13 points
12.9%
AI Model Projected Score
Alabama
29.8
ALABAMA
Book Implied: 29.20
Tennessee
26.8
TENNESSEE
Book Implied: 21.80
Simulated Score
Alabama
30
ALABAMA
Book Implied: 29.20
Tennessee
33
TENNESSEE
Book Implied: 21.80
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Alabama
Loss
57% Win Prob
C
Sim
Tennessee
Win
61% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
👑 Top Selection
AI
Tennessee (+7.5)
Win
Proj Spread: +3.0
B
Sim
Tennessee (+7.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -3.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
👑 Top Selection
AI
o51.0
Loss
Proj Total: 56.6
B
Sim
o51.0
Loss
Proj Total: 63.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Oct 17, 2026
ALA @ TENN
10 - 26
Oct 18, 2025
TENN @ ALA
20 - 37
Oct 19, 2024
ALA @ TENN
17 - 24
Oct 21, 2023
TENN @ ALA
20 - 34
Oct 15, 2022
ALA @ TENN
49 - 52
Key Model Drivers
Third Down Efficiency (L5)
+16.0% more
Alabama: 0.5
vs
Tennessee: 0.3
Total Yards (L5)
+9.4% more
Alabama: 423.9
vs
Tennessee: 384.3
Turnovers (L5)
+56.0% more
Tennessee: 1.7
vs
Alabama: 1.1
Rushing Yards (L5)
+18.0% more
Tennessee: 194.7
vs
Alabama: 164.9
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
ALA Score
29.8
10
TENN Score
26.8
26
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs
21.3 / 20.3
20.0 / 12.0
Rushing Yards
194.7 / 164.9
150.0 / 54.0
Third Down Efficiency
0.3 / 0.5
0.4 / 0.15
Time of Possession
0.5 / 0.5
0.6 / 0.4
Total Yards
384.3 / 423.9
347.0 / 201.0
Turnovers
1.7 / 1.1
2.0 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -280 / +224
→
-313 / +261
↓
Spread (ATS)
Open: -7 / +7
→
-7.5 / +7.5
↓
Total (O/U)
Open: 55.5
→
51
↓
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ALA
6-2-0
(75.0%)
Margin: 17.0
ATS +/-: +4.9
TENN
6-2-0
(75.0%)
Margin: 16.0
ATS +/-: +3.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ALA
4-4-0
(50.0%)
Margin: 17.0
ATS +/-: +4.9
TENN
4-4-0
(50.0%)
Margin: 16.0
ATS +/-: +3.3
⚖️ Over/Under
ALA
6-2-0
O: 75.0% / U: 25.0%
Total +/-: +7.1
TENN
2-6-0
O: 25.0% / U: 75.0%
Total +/-: -7.1
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TENN
ALA
TENN
ALA
ML
62%
5-3
88%
7-1
75%
6-2
38%
3-5
ATS
62%
5-3
75%
6-2
88%
7-1
38%
3-5
TTL
25%
2-6
50%
4-4
38%
3-5
62%
5-3
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