Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Auburn @ Georgia AUB @ UGA

AUBURN

AUBURNAUB

4-2  |  Road

27
FINAL
Sat, Oct 17 • 3:30 PM ET
Sanford Stadium
View Odds Details →

GEORGIA

GEORGIAUGA

6-1  |  Home

24
Key Game
Hudson Kaak
KEY GAME

Hudson Kaak

#14 | Punter
@
Drew Miller
KEY GAME

Drew Miller

#90 | Punter
Player
Hudson Kaak None-None
Drew Miller None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
AUBURN
12%
📊
GEORGIA
88%
▲ Edge: +1.90% (AUB)
AUBURN 11% Book Odds: +850
GEORGIA 94% Book Odds: -1449
Book Implied: 10.50% / 93.50%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
60.0
Projected
Book Total
49.5
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +10.5 (Over)
Over 49.5 72%
Under 49.5 28%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-20.4
GEORGIA
Book Spread
-19.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.9 points (Georgia)
AuburnAUB (+19.5) 0 GeorgiaUGA (-19.5)
Georgia Bulldogs (-19.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Auburn Cover

7.3%

Georgia Cover

92.7%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around UGA -20.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (UGA)

AUB By 1-6 points

4.0%

AUB By 7-13 points

2.0%

UGA By 1-6 points

8.3%

UGA By 7-13 points

15.1%

AI Model Projected Score
19.8
AUBURN
Book Implied: 15
40.2
GEORGIA
Book Implied: 34.50
Simulated Score
21
AUBURN
Book Implied: 15
34
GEORGIA
Book Implied: 34.50
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI Georgia Loss
88% Win Prob
A
Sim Georgia Loss
90% Win Prob
A
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Georgia (-19.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -20.4
D
Sim Auburn (+19.5) Win
Proj Spread: +13.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI o49.5 Win
Proj Total: 60.0
A
Sim o49.5 Win
Proj Total: 55.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 17, 2026 AUB @ UGA 27 - 24
Oct 11, 2025 UGA @ AUB 20 - 10
Oct 5, 2024 AUB @ UGA 13 - 31
Sep 30, 2023 UGA @ AUB 27 - 20
Oct 8, 2022 AUB @ UGA 10 - 42
Key Model Drivers
Total Yards (L5) +18.2% more
Georgia: 443.4 vs Auburn: 375.1
Rushing Yards (L5) +11.7% more
Georgia: 195.7 vs Auburn: 175.2
Time of Possession (L5) +10.0% more
Georgia: 0.5 vs Auburn: 0.4
Third Down Efficiency (L5) +10.0% more
Georgia: 0.5 vs Auburn: 0.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
AUB Score 19.8 27
UGA Score 40.2 24
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 21.4 / 19.8 24.0 / 23.0
Rushing Yards 195.7 / 175.2 113.0 / 192.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.5 / 0.4 0.5 / 0.38
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.4 0.51 / 0.49
Total Yards 443.4 / 375.1 440.0 / 366.0
Turnovers 0.8 / 1.8 3.0 / 0.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +663 / -1140 → +850 / -1449 ↑
2%TICKETS98%
12%MONEY88%
Spread (ATS)
Open: +18.5 / -18.5 → +19.5 / -19.5 ↑
35%TICKETS65%
28%MONEY72%
Total (O/U)
Open: 50.5 → 49.5 ↓
77%TICKETS23%
80%MONEY20%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
AUB
4-4-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -2.6 ATS +/-: -3.1
UGA Advantage
6-1-0 (85.7%)
Margin: 27.1 ATS +/-: +3.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
AUB
2-6-0 (25.0%)
Margin: -2.6 ATS +/-: -3.1
UGA Advantage
5-2-0 (71.4%)
Margin: 27.1 ATS +/-: +3.1
⚖️ Over/Under
AUB
4-4-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: -4.0
UGA
6-1-0
O: 85.7% / U: 14.3% Total +/-: +7.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
UGA
AUB
UGA
AUB
ML
83% 5-1
57% 4-3
57% 4-3
57% 4-3
ATS
50% 3-3
29% 2-5
29% 2-5
57% 4-3
TTL
67% 4-2
43% 3-4
57% 4-3
14% 1-6
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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