Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Florida @ Texas FLA @ TEX

FLORIDA

FLORIDAFLA

5-2  |  Road

27
FINAL
Sat, Oct 17 • 12:00 PM ET
DKR-Texas Memorial Stadium
View Odds Details →

TEXAS

TEXASTEX

4-2  |  Home

24
Key Game
Alec Clark
KEY GAME

Alec Clark

#38 | Punter
@
Mac Chiumento
KEY GAME

Mac Chiumento

#43 | Punter
Player
Alec Clark None-None
Mac Chiumento None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
FLORIDA
22%
📊
TEXAS
78%
▲ Edge: +1.20% (FLA)
FLORIDA 21% Book Odds: +370
TEXAS 83% Book Odds: -485
Book Implied: 21.30% / 82.90%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
60.0
Projected
Book Total
51.5
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +8.5 (Over)
Over 51.5 71%
Under 51.5 29%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-13.0
TEXAS
Book Spread
-12.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.5 points (Texas)
FloridaFLA (+12.5) 0 TexasTEX (-12.5)
Texas Longhorns (-12.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Florida Cover

17.7%

Texas Cover

82.3%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around TEX -13.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TEX)

FLA By 1-6 points

8.6%

FLA By 7-13 points

5.3%

TEX By 1-6 points

13.5%

TEX By 7-13 points

19.3%

AI Model Projected Score
23.5
FLORIDA
Book Implied: 19.50
36.5
TEXAS
Book Implied: 32
Simulated Score
25
FLORIDA
Book Implied: 19.50
32
TEXAS
Book Implied: 32
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI Texas Loss
78% Win Prob
A
Sim Texas Loss
75% Win Prob
A
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Texas (-12.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -13.0
D
Sim Florida (+12.5) Win
Proj Spread: +7.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI o51.5 Loss
Proj Total: 60.0
A
Sim o51.5 Loss
Proj Total: 57.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 17, 2026 FLA @ TEX 27 - 24
Oct 4, 2025 TEX @ FLA 21 - 29
Nov 9, 2024 FLA @ TEX 17 - 49
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5) +19.0% more
Florida: 159.8 vs Texas: 129.5
Total Yards (L5) +11.9% more
Florida: 415.5 vs Texas: 366.1
First Downs (L5) +11.8% more
Florida: 21.9 vs Texas: 19.3
Third Down Efficiency (L5) +10.0% more
Florida: 0.5 vs Texas: 0.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
FLA Score 23.5 27
TEX Score 36.5 24
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 19.3 / 21.9 13.0 / 21.0
Rushing Yards 129.5 / 159.8 99.0 / 158.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.5 0.2 / 0.42
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.36 / 0.64
Total Yards 366.1 / 415.5 272.0 / 313.0
Turnovers 1.4 / 1.4 1.0 / 0.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +280 / -355 → +370 / -485 ↑
6%TICKETS94%
11%MONEY89%
Spread (ATS)
Open: +10 / -10 → +12.5 / -12.5 ↑
58%TICKETS42%
44%MONEY56%
Total (O/U)
Open: 53.5 → 51.5 ↓
62%TICKETS38%
72%MONEY28%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
FLA
5-2-0 (71.4%)
Margin: 11.3 ATS +/-: -1.1
TEX
5-2-0 (71.4%)
Margin: 11.6 ATS +/-: -1.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
FLA Advantage
4-3-0 (57.1%)
Margin: 11.3 ATS +/-: -1.1
TEX
2-5-0 (28.6%)
Margin: 11.6 ATS +/-: -1.4
⚖️ Over/Under
FLA
4-3-0
O: 57.1% / U: 42.9% Total +/-: +9.6
TEX
3-4-0
O: 42.9% / U: 57.1% Total +/-: -3.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TEX
FLA
TEX
FLA
ML
57% 4-3
43% 3-4
43% 3-4
43% 3-4
ATS
43% 3-4
43% 3-4
57% 4-3
57% 4-3
TTL
43% 3-4
57% 4-3
43% 3-4
57% 4-3
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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