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WASHINGTON

WASHINGTONWASH

4-3  |  Road

38
FINAL
Fri, Oct 16 • 8:00 PM ET
Ross-Ade Stadium
View Odds Details →

PURDUE

PURDUEPUR

3-4  |  Home

26
Key Game
Tyler Robles
KEY GAME

Tyler Robles

#95 | Place kicker
@
Dylan Drennan
KEY GAME

Dylan Drennan

#42 | Punter
Player
Tyler Robles None-None
Dylan Drennan None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
WASHINGTON
79%
📊
PURDUE
21%
▲ Edge: +37.30% (WASH)
WASHINGTON 42% Book Odds: +139
PURDUE 61% Book Odds: -158
Book Implied: 41.80% / 61.20%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
51.6
Projected
Book Total
50.5
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +1.1 (Over)
Over 50.5 53%
Under 50.5 47%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-14.0
WASHINGTON
Book Spread
+3
Book Line
▲ Edge: +17.0 points (Washington)
WashingtonWASH (+3) 0 PurduePUR (-3)
Washington Huskies (+3) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Washington Cover

84.1%

Purdue Cover

15.9%

-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around WASH -14.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (WASH)

WASH By 1-6 points

12.9%

WASH By 7-13 points

19.0%

PUR By 1-6 points

7.9%

PUR By 7-13 points

4.7%

AI Model Projected Score
32.8
WASHINGTON
Book Implied: 23.80
18.8
PURDUE
Book Implied: 26.80
Simulated Score
27
WASHINGTON
Book Implied: 23.80
26
PURDUE
Book Implied: 26.80
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Washington Win
79% Win Prob
A
Sim Washington Win
55% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI Washington (+3) Win
Proj Spread: -14.0
A
Sim Washington (+3) Win
Proj Spread: -1.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
AI o50.5 Win
Proj Total: 51.6
D
Sim o50.5 Win
Proj Total: 53.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 16, 2026 WASH @ PUR 38 - 26
Nov 15, 2025 PUR @ WASH 13 - 49
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +16.0% more
Washington: 0.7 vs Purdue: 0.6
Rushing Yards (L5) +120.7% more
Purdue: 158.3 vs Washington: 71.7
Third Down Efficiency (L5) +14.0% more
Purdue: 0.4 vs Washington: 0.3
First Downs (L5) +13.2% more
Purdue: 22.4 vs Washington: 19.8
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
WASH Score 32.8 38
PUR Score 18.8 26
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 22.4 / 19.8 19.0 / 24.0
Rushing Yards 158.3 / 71.7 98.0 / 186.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.3 0.36 / 0.57
Time of Possession 0.6 / 0.5 0.51 / 0.49
Total Yards 389.3 / 344.9 371.0 / 488.0
Turnovers 0.6 / 0.7 2.0 / 5.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +124 / -148 → +139 / -158 ↑
27%TICKETS73%
17%MONEY83%
Spread (ATS)
Open: +2.5 / -2.5 → +3 / -3 ↑
51%TICKETS49%
59%MONEY41%
Total (O/U)
Open: 51.5 → 50.5 ↓
84%TICKETS16%
85%MONEY15%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
WASH Advantage
4-3-0 (57.1%)
Margin: 5.1 ATS +/-: -8.9
PUR
3-4-0 (42.9%)
Margin: -1.0 ATS +/-: +1.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
WASH
2-5-0 (28.6%)
Margin: 5.1 ATS +/-: -8.9
PUR Advantage
3-4-0 (42.9%)
Margin: -1.0 ATS +/-: +1.4
⚖️ Over/Under
WASH
4-3-0
O: 57.1% / U: 42.9% Total +/-: -0.8
PUR
6-1-0
O: 85.7% / U: 14.3% Total +/-: +9.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
PUR
WASH
PUR
WASH
ML
71% 5-2
86% 6-1
86% 6-1
71% 5-2
ATS
33% 2-4-1
86% 6-1
67% 4-2-1
43% 3-4
TTL
71% 5-2
86% 6-1
57% 4-3
57% 4-3
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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