Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Memphis @ Tulane MEM @ TULN

MEMPHIS

MEMPHISMEM

5-2  |  Road

17
FINAL
Fri, Oct 16 • 7:30 PM ET
Yulman Stadium
View Odds Details →

TULANE

TULANETULN

3-3  |  Home

31
Key Game
Philippe Laforge
KEY GAME

Philippe Laforge

#80 | Place kicker
@
William Hudlow
KEY GAME

William Hudlow

#34 | Punter
Player
Philippe Laforge None-None
William Hudlow None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
MEMPHIS
34%
📊
TULANE
66%
▲ Edge: +34.20% (TULN)
MEMPHIS 71% Book Odds: -249
TULANE 32% Book Odds: +213
Book Implied: 71.30% / 31.90%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
53.0
Projected
Book Total
56.0
Over / Under Line
▼ Edge: +3.0 (Under)
Over 56.0 43%
Under 56.0 57%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-7.0
TULANE
Book Spread
+6.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +13.5 points (Tulane)
MemphisMEM (-6.5) 0 TulaneTULN (+6.5)
Tulane Green Wave (+6.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Memphis Cover

30.9%

Tulane Cover

69.1%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around TULN -7.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TULN)

MEM By 1-6 points

12.9%

MEM By 7-13 points

9.6%

TULN By 1-6 points

16.5%

TULN By 7-13 points

19.3%

AI Model Projected Score
23
MEMPHIS
Book Implied: 31.20
30
TULANE
Book Implied: 24.80
Simulated Score
34
MEMPHIS
Book Implied: 31.20
26
TULANE
Book Implied: 24.80
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence 👑 Top Selection
AI Tulane Win
66% Win Prob
B
Sim Memphis Loss
79% Win Prob
A
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Tulane (+6.5) Win
Proj Spread: -7.0
A
Sim Memphis (-6.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -8.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI u56.0 Win
Proj Total: 53.0
C
Sim o56.0 Loss
Proj Total: 60.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 16, 2026 MEM @ TULN 17 - 31
Nov 7, 2025 TULN @ MEM 38 - 32
Nov 28, 2024 MEM @ TULN 34 - 24
Oct 13, 2023 TULN @ MEM 31 - 21
Oct 22, 2022 MEM @ TULN 28 - 38
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +33.0% more
Tulane: 0.8 vs Memphis: 0.5
First Downs (L5) +35.2% more
Memphis: 26.1 vs Tulane: 16.9
Rushing Yards (L5) +32.7% more
Memphis: 240.0 vs Tulane: 161.6
Total Yards (L5) +31.1% more
Memphis: 498.5 vs Tulane: 343.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
MEM Score 23.0 17
TULN Score 30.0 31
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 16.9 / 26.1 12.0 / 27.0
Rushing Yards 161.6 / 240.0 150.0 / 182.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.5 0.25 / 0.18
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.51 / 0.49
Total Yards 343.4 / 498.5 325.0 / 488.0
Turnovers 0.8 / 0.5 2.0 / 6.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -270 / +220 → -249 / +213 ↑
93%TICKETS7%
89%MONEY11%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -7 / +7 → -6.5 / +6.5 ↑
74%TICKETS26%
71%MONEY29%
Total (O/U)
Open: 53.5 → 56 ↑
60%TICKETS40%
69%MONEY31%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MEM Advantage
6-2-0 (75.0%)
Margin: 12.4 ATS +/-: +2.3
TULN
3-4-0 (42.9%)
Margin: -4.3 ATS +/-: -3.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MEM Advantage
4-4-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 12.4 ATS +/-: +2.3
TULN
3-4-0 (42.9%)
Margin: -4.3 ATS +/-: -3.1
⚖️ Over/Under
MEM
5-3-0
O: 62.5% / U: 37.5% Total +/-: +4.8
TULN
3-4-0
O: 42.9% / U: 57.1% Total +/-: -4.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TULN
MEM
TULN
MEM
ML
75% 6-2
88% 7-1
62% 5-3
75% 6-2
ATS
62% 5-3
75% 6-2
50% 4-4
38% 3-5
TTL
62% 5-3
38% 3-5
50% 4-4
50% 4-4
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
Ole Miss vs. Auburn: Beyond the Scoreboard, Rebels Seek Redempti…
si 8 hours, 27 minutes ago
Steve Sarkisian Raises Concerns Over SEC's Nine-Game Schedule Im…
yahoo 14 hours, 33 minutes ago
Auburn's Ground Game Could Exploit Ole Miss's Rushing Defense in…
yahoo 1 day, 8 hours ago
Alex Golesh Leaves No Stone Unturned After Auburn's LSU Debacle,…
si 1 day, 14 hours ago
Jon Coffman Praises Matt Painter for Scheduling Road Exhibition …
si 5 days, 14 hours ago