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COLORADO STATE

COLORADO STCSU

2-4  |  Road

27
FINAL
Thu, Oct 15 • 8:00 PM ET
UFCU Stadium
View Odds Details →

TEXAS STATE

TEXAS STTXST

3-3  |  Home

66
Key Game
Nathan Sutcliffe
KEY GAME

Nathan Sutcliffe

#39 | Punter
@
👤
KEY GAME

Tom Flintoff

#92 | Punter
Player
Nathan Sutcliffe None-None
Tom Flintoff None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
COLORADO ST
27%
📊
TEXAS ST
73%
▲ Edge: +9.80% (CSU)
COLORADO ST 17% Book Odds: +490
TEXAS ST 87% Book Odds: -676
Book Implied: 16.90% / 87.10%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
63.0
Projected
Book Total
69.5
Over / Under Line
▼ Edge: +6.5 (Under)
Over 69.5 36%
Under 69.5 64%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+10.6
COLORADO STATE
Book Spread
+15.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +4.9 points (Colorado State)
Colorado StCSU (+15.5) 0 Texas StTXST (-15.5)
Colorado State Rams (+15.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Colorado St Cover

77.6%

Texas St Cover

22.4%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around CSU +10.6 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CSU)

CSU By 1-6 points

10.3%

CSU By 7-13 points

6.8%

TXST By 1-6 points

14.9%

TXST By 7-13 points

19.7%

AI Model Projected Score
26.2
COLORADO STATE
Book Implied: 27
36.8
TEXAS STATE
Book Implied: 42.50
Simulated Score
21
COLORADO STATE
Book Implied: 27
38
TEXAS STATE
Book Implied: 42.50
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI Texas St Win
73% Win Prob
A
Sim Texas St Win
95% Win Prob
A
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence 👑 Top Selection
AI Colorado St (+15.5) Loss
Proj Spread: +10.6
B
Sim Texas St (-15.5) Win
Proj Spread: -17.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI u69.5 Loss
Proj Total: 63.0
B
Sim u69.5 Loss
Proj Total: 59.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 15, 2026 CSU @ TXST 27 - 66
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5) +65.6% more
Texas State: 257.2 vs Colorado State: 155.3
Turnovers (L5) +48.6% more
Texas State: 1.6 vs Colorado State: 1.1
First Downs (L5) +44.1% more
Texas State: 28.3 vs Colorado State: 19.6
Total Yards (L5) +34.0% more
Texas State: 556.0 vs Colorado State: 414.9
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
CSU Score 26.2 27
TXST Score 36.8 66
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 28.3 / 19.6 31.0 / 18.0
Rushing Yards 257.2 / 155.3 503.0 / 148.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.5 / 0.5 0.56 / 0.27
Time of Possession 0.6 / 0.5 0.49 / 0.51
Total Yards 556.0 / 414.9 716.0 / 437.0
Turnovers 1.6 / 1.1 1.0 / 0.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +350 / -455 → +490 / -676 ↑
5%TICKETS95%
10%MONEY90%
Spread (ATS)
Open: +11.5 / -11.5 → +15.5 / -15.5 ↑
52%TICKETS48%
57%MONEY43%
Total (O/U)
Open: 67.5 → 69.5 ↑
52%TICKETS48%
81%MONEY19%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CSU
3-5-0 (37.5%)
Margin: -6.9 ATS +/-: -1.5
TXST Advantage
4-3-0 (57.1%)
Margin: 7.1 ATS +/-: +0.5
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CSU
3-4-1 (42.9%)
Margin: -6.9 ATS +/-: -1.5
TXST
3-4-0 (42.9%)
Margin: 7.1 ATS +/-: +0.5
⚖️ Over/Under
CSU
7-0-0
O: 100.0% / U: 0.0% Total +/-: +24.8
TXST
5-2-0
O: 71.4% / U: 28.6% Total +/-: +4.1
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TXST
CSU
TXST
CSU
ML
75% 6-2
86% 6-1
75% 6-2
88% 7-1
ATS
25% 2-6
43% 3-4
38% 3-5
50% 4-4
TTL
38% 3-5
14% 1-6
50% 4-4
38% 3-5
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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