Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / GA Southern @ Old Dominion GASO @ ODU

GEORGIA SOUTHERN

GA SOUTHERNGASO

3-4  |  Road

23
FINAL
Thu, Oct 15 • 7:30 PM ET
S.B. Ballard Stadium
View Odds Details →

OLD DOMINION

OLD DOMINIONODU

2-5  |  Home

15
Key Game
Tripp Bryant
KEY GAME

Tripp Bryant

#95 | Place kicker
@
Ian Brandt
KEY GAME

Ian Brandt

#96 | Punter
Player
Tripp Bryant None-None
Ian Brandt None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
GA SOUTHERN
26%
📊
OLD DOMINION
74%
▲ Edge: +31.10% (ODU)
GA SOUTHERN 60% Book Odds: -148
OLD DOMINION 43% Book Odds: +131
Book Implied: 59.70% / 43.30%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
53.0
Projected
Book Total
45.0
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +8.0 (Over)
Over 45.0 67%
Under 45.0 33%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-11.0
OLD DOMINION
Book Spread
+3
Book Line
▲ Edge: +14.0 points (Old Dominion)
GA SouthernGASO (-3) 0 Old DominionODU (+3)
Old Dominion Monarchs (+3) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

GA Southern Cover

21.6%

Old Dominion Cover

78.4%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around ODU -11.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ODU)

GASO By 1-6 points

10.0%

GASO By 7-13 points

6.6%

ODU By 1-6 points

14.7%

ODU By 7-13 points

19.7%

AI Model Projected Score
21
GEORGIA SOUTHERN
Book Implied: 24
32
OLD DOMINION
Book Implied: 21
Simulated Score
28
GEORGIA SOUTHERN
Book Implied: 24
31
OLD DOMINION
Book Implied: 21
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Old Dominion Loss
74% Win Prob
A
Sim Old Dominion Loss
61% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI Old Dominion (+3) Loss
Proj Spread: -11.0
A
Sim Old Dominion (+3) Loss
Proj Spread: -3.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI o45.0 Loss
Proj Total: 53.0
A
Sim o45.0 Loss
Proj Total: 59.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 15, 2026 GASO @ ODU 23 - 15
Nov 22, 2025 ODU @ GASO 45 - 10
Oct 24, 2024 GASO @ ODU 19 - 47
Nov 18, 2023 ODU @ GASO 20 - 17
Oct 22, 2022 GASO @ ODU 28 - 23
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +90.1% more
Old Dominion: 2.1 vs Georgia Southern: 1.1
Rushing Yards (L5) +10.5% more
Old Dominion: 139.9 vs Georgia Southern: 126.6
Total Yards (L5) +34.1% more
Georgia Southern: 409.7 vs Old Dominion: 269.9
First Downs (L5) +29.9% more
Georgia Southern: 21.0 vs Old Dominion: 14.8
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
GASO Score 21.0 23
ODU Score 32.0 15
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 14.8 / 21.0 16.0 / 28.0
Rushing Yards 139.9 / 126.6 65.0 / 133.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.3 / 0.4 0.3 / 0.25
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.39 / 0.61
Total Yards 269.9 / 409.7 264.0 / 405.0
Turnovers 2.1 / 1.1 2.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -175 / +145 → -148 / +131 ↑
71%TICKETS29%
32%MONEY68%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -3.5 / +3.5 → -3 / +3 ↑
54%TICKETS46%
52%MONEY48%
Total (O/U)
Open: 49.5 → 45 ↓
77%TICKETS23%
75%MONEY25%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
GASO Advantage
3-4-0 (42.9%)
Margin: 1.4 ATS +/-: +3.3
ODU
2-6-0 (25.0%)
Margin: -11.3 ATS +/-: -10.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
GASO Advantage
6-1-0 (85.7%)
Margin: 1.4 ATS +/-: +3.3
ODU
1-7-0 (12.5%)
Margin: -11.3 ATS +/-: -10.1
⚖️ Over/Under
GASO
3-4-0
O: 42.9% / U: 57.1% Total +/-: -4.6
ODU
3-5-0
O: 37.5% / U: 62.5% Total +/-: -5.1
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ODU
GASO
ODU
GASO
ML
62% 5-3
71% 5-2
38% 3-5
57% 4-3
ATS
25% 2-6
14% 1-6
50% 4-4
57% 4-3
TTL
25% 2-6
14% 1-6
38% 3-5
57% 4-3
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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