Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / East Carolina @ UAB ECU @ UAB

EAST CAROLINA

EAST CAROLINAECU

3-3  |  Road

17
FINAL
Thu, Oct 15 • 7:30 PM ET
Protective Stadium
View Odds Details →

UAB

UABUAB

4-3  |  Home

30
Key Game
Elliot Huether
KEY GAME

Elliot Huether

#83 | Punter
@
Oliver Straw
KEY GAME

Oliver Straw

#46 | Punter
Player
Elliot Huether None-None
Oliver Straw None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
EAST CAROLINA
73%
📊
UAB
27%
▲ Edge: +6.70% (ECU)
EAST CAROLINA 66% Book Odds: -198
UAB 38% Book Odds: +164
Book Implied: 66.40% / 37.90%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
48.0
Projected
Book Total
49.5
Over / Under Line
▼ Edge: +1.5 (Under)
Over 49.5 48%
Under 49.5 52%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-10.4
EAST CAROLINA
Book Spread
-4.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +5.9 points (East Carolina)
East CarolinaECU (-4.5) 0 UABUAB (+4.5)
East Carolina Pirates (-4.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

East Carolina Cover

77.1%

UAB Cover

22.9%

-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around ECU -10.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ECU)

ECU By 1-6 points

15.1%

ECU By 7-13 points

19.7%

UAB By 1-6 points

10.4%

UAB By 7-13 points

7.0%

AI Model Projected Score
29.2
EAST CAROLINA
Book Implied: 27
18.8
UAB
Book Implied: 22.50
Simulated Score
19
EAST CAROLINA
Book Implied: 27
28
UAB
Book Implied: 22.50
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence 👑 Top Selection
AI East Carolina Loss
73% Win Prob
A
Sim UAB Win
81% Win Prob
A
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence 👑 Top Selection
AI East Carolina (-4.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -10.4
B
Sim UAB (+4.5) Win
Proj Spread: -9.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
AI u49.5 Win
Proj Total: 48.0
D
Sim u49.5 Win
Proj Total: 47.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 15, 2026 ECU @ UAB 17 - 30
Nov 16, 2013 UAB @ ECU 14 - 63
Key Model Drivers
Total Yards (L5) +11.6% more
East Carolina: 378.8 vs UAB: 334.8
Turnovers (L5) +38.8% more
UAB: 2.0 vs East Carolina: 1.5
First Downs (L5) +10.7% more
UAB: 19.6 vs East Carolina: 17.7
Time of Possession (L5) +8.0% more
UAB: 0.5 vs East Carolina: 0.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
ECU Score 29.2 17
UAB Score 18.8 30
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 19.6 / 17.7 19.0 / 22.0
Rushing Yards 180.3 / 176.3 99.0 / 191.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.3 0.38 / 0.45
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.43 / 0.57
Total Yards 334.8 / 378.8 361.0 / 317.0
Turnovers 2.0 / 1.5 0.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -208 / +173 → -198 / +164 ↑
74%TICKETS26%
70%MONEY30%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -5 / +5 → -4.5 / +4.5 ↑
47%TICKETS53%
44%MONEY56%
Total (O/U)
Open: 51.5 → 49.5 ↓
78%TICKETS22%
72%MONEY28%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ECU
3-4-0 (42.9%)
Margin: -1.3 ATS +/-: -3.9
UAB Advantage
4-3-0 (57.1%)
Margin: -1.3 ATS +/-: +1.6
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ECU
3-4-0 (42.9%)
Margin: -1.3 ATS +/-: -3.9
UAB Advantage
3-3-1 (50.0%)
Margin: -1.3 ATS +/-: +1.6
⚖️ Over/Under
ECU
2-5-0
O: 28.6% / U: 71.4% Total +/-: -1.1
UAB
1-6-0
O: 14.3% / U: 85.7% Total +/-: -5.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
UAB
ECU
UAB
ECU
ML
71% 5-2
57% 4-3
100% 7-0
57% 4-3
ATS
50% 3-3-1
43% 3-4
83% 5-1-1
29% 2-5
TTL
43% 3-4
43% 3-4
57% 4-3
71% 5-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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