Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Kennesaw St @ Missouri St KENN @ MOST

KENNESAW STATE

KENNESAW STKENN

1-5  |  Road

21
FINAL
Wed, Oct 14 • 7:30 PM ET
Robert W. Plaster Stadium
View Odds Details →

MISSOURI STATE

MISSOURI STMOST

2-4  |  Home

24
Key Game
Matt McKenzie
KEY GAME

Matt McKenzie

#34 | Punter
@
Stewart McDonald
KEY GAME

Stewart McDonald

#25 | Punter
Player
Matt McKenzie None-None
Stewart McDonald None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
KENNESAW ST
62%
📊
MISSOURI ST
38%
▲ Edge: +3.60% (KENN)
KENNESAW ST 58% Book Odds: -139
MISSOURI ST 45% Book Odds: +123
Book Implied: 58.20% / 44.80%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
49.4
Projected
Book Total
52.5
Over / Under Line
▼ Edge: +3.1 (Under)
Over 52.5 43%
Under 52.5 57%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-5.0
KENNESAW STATE
Book Spread
-2.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.5 points (Kennesaw State)
Kennesaw StKENN (-2.5) 0 Missouri StMOST (+2.5)
Kennesaw State Owls (-2.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Kennesaw St Cover

64.0%

Missouri St Cover

36.0%

-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around KENN -5.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (KENN)

KENN By 1-6 points

16.9%

KENN By 7-13 points

18.5%

MOST By 1-6 points

14.2%

MOST By 7-13 points

11.3%

AI Model Projected Score
27.2
KENNESAW STATE
Book Implied: 27.50
22.2
MISSOURI STATE
Book Implied: 25
Simulated Score
23
KENNESAW STATE
Book Implied: 27.50
29
MISSOURI STATE
Book Implied: 25
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Kennesaw St Loss
62% Win Prob
C
Sim Missouri St Win
72% Win Prob
A
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Kennesaw St (-2.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -5.0
C
Sim Missouri St (+2.5) Win
Proj Spread: -6.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
AI u52.5 Win
Proj Total: 49.4
C
Sim u52.5 Win
Proj Total: 52.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 14, 2026 KENN @ MOST 21 - 24
Nov 22, 2025 MOST @ KENN 34 - 41
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +16.8% more
Kennesaw State: 1.3 vs Missouri State: 1.1
First Downs (L5) +12.1% more
Kennesaw State: 20.7 vs Missouri State: 18.2
Third Down Efficiency (L5) +10.0% more
Kennesaw State: 0.4 vs Missouri State: 0.3
Rushing Yards (L5) +10.0% more
Kennesaw State: 144.6 vs Missouri State: 130.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
KENN Score 27.2 21
MOST Score 22.2 24
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 18.2 / 20.7 26.0 / 23.0
Rushing Yards 130.2 / 144.6 118.0 / 77.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.3 / 0.4 0.5 / 0.27
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.56 / 0.44
Total Yards 358.6 / 371.5 421.0 / 337.0
Turnovers 1.1 / 1.3 1.0 / 0.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -155 / +130 → -139 / +123 ↑
0%TICKETS100%
0%MONEY100%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -3 / +3 → -2.5 / +2.5 ↑
0%TICKETS100%
0%MONEY100%
Total (O/U)
Open: 50.5 → 52.5 ↑
0%TICKETS100%
0%MONEY100%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
KENN
2-6-0 (25.0%)
Margin: -2.4 ATS +/-: +0.1
MOST Advantage
3-5-0 (37.5%)
Margin: -6.5 ATS +/-: +0.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
KENN Advantage
5-3-0 (62.5%)
Margin: -2.4 ATS +/-: +0.1
MOST
4-4-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -6.5 ATS +/-: +0.4
⚖️ Over/Under
KENN
2-6-0
O: 25.0% / U: 75.0% Total +/-: -4.3
MOST
3-5-0
O: 37.5% / U: 62.5% Total +/-: +0.9
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MOST
KENN
MOST
KENN
ML
75% 6-2
29% 2-5
88% 7-1
75% 6-2
ATS
62% 5-3
57% 4-3
62% 5-3
75% 6-2
TTL
38% 3-5
57% 4-3
75% 6-2
38% 3-5
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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